Rebuild 4.0

Im back... and the Oilers are still bad. How is this possible?!? I havent posted in 4 years and looking back over the posts its almost comical. If you would have told me back in 2008 to 2012 that the Oilers would get a player as good as Connor McDavid I would have asked you how many cups we'd win. But Peter Chiarelli took an excellent opportunity in 2015 and absolutely boned it. So where do the Oilers go from here. Failure is the best way to learn and we can only hope Katz and Nicholson get it right on their next GM choice. As a fan I'd simply like to enjoy watching games again. That involves winning and its been a long hard grind since 2006 save for the spring of 2017. This blog is my way of documenting my opinions and see how they age. I just read over my old blog posts and man some of them were through rose colored fan glasses. You always hope for the best - maybe he can continue this PDO heater right?!? I also express my opinions (mostly complain) on Twitter from time to time. Looking back, I was very critical of the Hall trade

Canadian teams watch the American teams play in the playoffs because they arent nearly as smart as their counterpart https://t.co/tjEstK8buV

— Sean Solbak (@frozenpools) June 29, 2016

I think Im gonna switch to being an NFL fan. Suffered through age 25-35 of the Oilers for them to do this?!?

— Sean Solbak (@frozenpools) June 29, 2016

I also said the Lucic contract better be moveable.

If the Oilers really go $6x7 on Lucic, I hope they front load it so its moveable if needbe.

— Sean Solbak (@frozenpools) July 1, 2016

Turns out it isnt. But I wasnt right RE the Reinhart trade especially given the quality of talent that was available at pick 16 in 2015.

The #Oilers trade today isnt the worst. Draft + 4/5 are key dev years for D. Griffin can play next year and UFA crop is light.

— Sean Solbak (@frozenpools) June 27, 2015

It will all depend on how well Griffin develops. The price is high though so they need to be right.

— Sean Solbak (@frozenpools) June 27, 2015

Paying in full price and being wrong was a common result of all Chiarelli's moves. But what does it mean when a fan like me can look at a significant move and instantly bash it, whats going on with management?

As CTO of a growing machine learning based startup, the biggest thing Ive learned is the importance of measuring success. New employees arrive with new ideas, opinions, methods of doing things. How do you know which ones to implement and how to know if they move the needle the right direction.

Its not easy.

For me there are 2 keys to this 1) give yourself enough data and visibility into the data to let you measure success and 2) measure often. You need good people to provide the right ideas and execute on but if the process and game-plan are off you are in charge. And for every big decision, you ultimately bear the responsibility of it. So be prepared.

Look at the Oilers cap management and trade record. What process and data led to these decisions? Where did it go wrong? I cant say as an outsider that I know the answer to that but the collection results sure dont speak well to the inputs into those decisions.

I can tell you with a GREAT DEAL more certainty and inside knowledge than "oh, I asked the GM at a season ticket holders meeting" that the Oilers do NOT meaningfully use analytics, and thanks to Chia, no longer even have the capacity to meaningfully use analytics. https://t.co/IacO8TGVeN

— Oilers Nerd Alert (@OilersNerdAlert) January 23, 2019

Ive followed along with the hockey analytics movement, helped organized the first AB analytics conference, contributed to puckiq.com (more on that later) and read Lowetide every day for over a decade. I can tell you there are a lot of big brains out there. Embrace analytics. So thats the biggest point I could make. I don't think the decision making has the right foundations behind it. And to be clear I mean a whole lot deeper than checking a players corsi.

The Edmonton Oilers are blessed with a star in Connor McDavid. His impact wont be that of a say Lebron James but in hockey his impact is in a class of its own. So I think the Oilers can be turned around in a 1-3 year window allowing for flexibility on time to clear cap space, acquire players and luck in drafting and development. With that in mind and by backing each decision made with analytics and improved data based inputs I think the Oilers should attempt the following:

1) Embrace skill, speed and possession hockey. Build a team that compliments McDavids strengths. Does this include Ken Hitchcock? I think it could. I dont think coaching has been the Oilers problem in a while.

2) Sell players with cap term and hit particularly those who don't fit point #1. In no order that includes: Lucic, Russell, Sekera, Manning, Spooner, Kassian, Petrovic, Benning, Reider, Brodziak, Koskinen and Talbot. Starting now.

3) Put Darnell Nurse and Jessie Puljurarvi on the block. But Id be tempted to see the value of these 2 players on the open market. Both have incredible physical tools but Im not 100% convinced the hockey IQ is there. In Jessie's case Id instruct my coach to play him 15+ min per game for the rest of the year to see if he can figure it out. The Oilers cant afford to bleed value on anymore deals so keeping both is a fine option.

4) Keep the 2019 pick. Picks are worth more to teams like Winnipeg and Edmonton. 1st round picks can yield value contracts who are your property for 8 years. That has too much value in a cap world. Especially to this team.

And good luck to the new GM. Your fans have been waiting a while.