Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Measuring unappreciated offensive contributions


I've been reading alot of David Staples work of late. He got some good stuff that is out of the box type thinking which I like. He had a post today about how Dustin Penner and Erik Cole contribute to alot of goals but dont get as much credit (points). On top of Davids analysis it got me wondering how to measure this. After some thought, I came to the idea that measuring GFON/60 - PTS/60 would be a good indicator. Thanks again to Gabe Desjardins for his excellent work. Here are the Oilers results:



























NAMEPOSGPGFON/60 - PTS/60GOALS/60PTS/60GFON/60
TOMGILBERTD221.760.180.350.531.052.81
DUSTINPENNERLW201.690.970.7201.693.38
LUBOMIRVISNOVSKYD221.550.150.150.150.462.01
STEVESTAIOSD201.490.210.2100.421.91
SHAWNHORCOFFLW221.420.6100.411.022.44
FERNANDOPISANIRW151.330.660.330.331.322.65
SAMGAGNERC211.3100.6600.661.97
LIAMREDDOXLW71.111.1001.12.21
SHELDONSOURAYD211.090.360.910.181.452.54
DENISGREBESHKOVD191.060.210.210.420.841.9
ROBERTNILSSONRW220.920.230.4600.691.61
ERIKCOLERW220.860.2200.430.651.51
ETHANMOREAULW220.630.840.630.632.112.74
JASONSTRUDWICKD190.5100.250.510.761.27
ALESHEMSKYRW220.390.990.60.62.192.58
KYLEBRODZIAKC200.310.94000.941.25
MARC-ANTOINEPOULIOTC220.280.280.8401.121.4
ANDREWCOGLIANOC220.250.730.240.731.711.96
LADISLAVSMIDD10000.530.531.061.06
TIMSESTITOLW1000000
STEVEMACINTYRELW10000000
JESSEBOULERICERW2000000
ZACHERYSTORTINIRW12000000
THEOPECKHAMD1000000


My first observation (which came after looking at the data but should have been obvious beforehad) is that, by this metric, defenders score better than forwards. The second was that Staples was right about Dustin Penner whereas Erik Cole didnt rank as well. Cole seems to directly contribute offense and thats about it. Then I looked at the top 20 forwards in the NHL. I eliminated defenders (about 90% of the top 200 players by this metric were defenders) and players who either

a) Hadnt played more than 10 games
b) Dont play more than 10 minutes/game

Not surprisingly was Dustin Penner at 13th overall.






















NAMEGFON/60 - PTS/60POSTEAMGPTOI/60PTS/60GFON/60
MIKERICHARDS2.37CPHI2114.51.774.14
DANHINOTE2.15RWSTL108.3902.15
BLAKEWHEELER2.05RWBOS2410.962.514.56
PATRICKO'SULLIVAN1.92RWL.A2212.812.134.05
STEVENREINPRECHT1.85CPHX2011.351.853.7
BRYANLITTLE1.84CATL2312.762.664.5
ERICSTAAL1.82CCAR2415.131.493.31
TOMASHOLMSTROM1.79LWDET1711.832.093.88
TOBYPETERSEN1.79CDAL217.991.072.86
PATRICHORNQVIST1.77LWNSH1511.282.133.9
DEANMCAMMOND1.73LWOTT206.920.872.6
DUSTINPENNER1.69LWEDM2012.421.693.38
JONSIM1.69LWNYI2410.390.962.65
RICHARDPARK1.68CNYI2411.841.062.74
MASONRAYMOND1.65LWVAN2511.631.242.89
STEPHENWEISS1.64CFLA1913.432.594.23
PETRSYKORA1.62RWPIT2011.091.623.24
PETRSYKORA1.62RWPIT2011.091.623.24
ALEXEIPONIKAROVSKY1.6LWTOR2412.492.23.8



This metric obviously isnt a strong indicator of player performance. The only thing better than contributing to offense is by directly contributing (scoring then first assist then second assist ect) to the goal. But Dustin does contribute to offense that he doesn't get credit for. Another thing to consider is the Oilers lack of offense so if you scaled this metric by goal scoring per team Penner would probably rank higher.

If anyone wants current Behind the Net 5 on 5 data. I shared the spreadsheet I pulled the data into here.

1 comments:

Sean said...

Ok I hate blogger, cant make the tables look right...