Puck Donkey

Rebuild 2.0

2011-05-29T16:59:00.000-07:00

Rebuild 2.0

Last year I wrote a piece here on the beginning of the Oilers rebuild and how I thought management should act for the upcoming season. This year, I would like to revisit where the team is at and once again offer how I feel they should act in the coming year. It’s an Armchair GM article. This year I removed the salaries because let’s face it – they don’t matter nearly as much with the current team.

To quickly revisit last year’s article, my team would have looked like the following on opening night with additions to the team in italics:

· GOAL: Khabibulin; Deslauriers
· BLUE: Gilbert; Whitney; Shut-down guy (FA); Smid ; Chorney; Peckham; Aaron Johnson
· CENTER: Gagner; O'Sullivan; Horcoff; Pouliot; Potulny
· LEFT WING: Penner; Hall; Cogliano; Ryan Jones
· RIGHT WING: Hemsky; Brule; Colby Armstrong (FA); Eberle; Stortini

For comparison, here is the roster the Oilers started the season with:

· GOAL: Khabibulin; Deslauriers; Dubnyk
· BLUE: Gilbert; Whitney; Vandermeer; Smid; Peckham; Foster; Strudwick
· CENTER: Gagner; Horcoff; Cogliano; Brule; Fraser
· LEFT WING: Penner; Hall; Pajaarvi; MacIntyre
· RIGHT WING: Hemsky; Eberle; Jones; Stortini

I must admit that these two are not that far off. They signed Fraser instead of my suggestion in Armstrong. They flushed O’Sullivan, Pouliot and Potulny and added Pajaarvi, then brought in Vandermeer and Foster where I had a FA shut-down defenseman and elected to bring back Aaron Johnson. Overall, just some minor tweaks in both options.

Going into the 2010 -2011 season, I honestly thought this team would perform a lot better than they did. I wasn’t expecting a playoff team yet, but especially after that opening night win against Calgary, how could you not be optimistic? Sure the excitement and compete was much better than the 09-10 season, but the results were just as bad. They only had 25 wins and needed over 40 to get into the dance. That is a lot of improvement to ask for in one year, so I will be trying my best to temper my optimism and keep it in mind this year.

Having said that, I am still fairly optimistic about how the rebuild is going to date. We may be two or three years away, but I personally believe with the right additions, we could see a competitive team (e.g., in the 7-11 Western Conference range) as soon as the 2012-2013 season or if we are really lucky maybe this coming year.

The need to inject some veteran leadership should not go underestimated. Don Cherry mentioned this specifically referencing the Oiler’s on Hockey Night in Canada and I agree with him. The Oiler’s need to be careful they don’t allow a culture of losing to develop and therefore they must get in a competitive position as soon as possible.

Same as last year, I will start with the draft and then list the to-do items that may impact the opening night roster as the following:

1) Draft Ryan Nyugent-Hopkins 1st overall. Skill, skill and more skill. Plus, the guy has played in Red Deer for 3 years and publicly stated he wants to play for the Oilers – you’ve got to love that! Sure he is only 165 lbs soaking wet, but there are many elite players who are small and getting stronger is a lot easier than adding speed or that uncanny sixth hockey sense.

2) Explore the trade front for a potential big win-win deal. The focus of these big trades that need to be worked out before free agency should be on improving the top end talent of the team. In my opinion particular focus for the Oiler’s top end talent must be on defence. Guys like Bogosian and Weber keep coming up in blogs. Although this is unlikely, we have to explore these options to accelerate the team’s improvement. Sure we may see one of our prospects emerge but we may not and the risk of having another weak defence is too great to not address it. Also, this will not be fixed by adding depth defenders like Foster. We need a top sheriff back there to help out Whitney, because after him the talent drops way too fast.

3) As Free agency opens, focus on a few key players and if unable to sign them, don’t settle. There are a few key needs for this team right now that are quite obvious. A top defender and a defensive center who can win face-offs. I know these positions can be hard to find, but the Oiler’s have cap room to spare, so they should not shy away from a lot of money over a short term to address these needs. I believe that once the Oiler’s get out of this rut of being near the bottom and actually competing for playoffs, they will have reached a tipping point and all of a sudden Edmonton will be a much more attractive team to play for. Players around the league will see the upside of the youth they have in Hall, Eberle, Pajaarvi and RNH. We should not rely on the excuse that the team can develop every need from within. Although filling these gaps are critical, I wouldn’t settle. You have to identify where the capability drops off in the free agent market and then decide to go with prospects rather than settling. I would look to sign up to four depth players, as per the following:
a) A top end defender. This will be tough no doubt, but every possibility should be assessed to bring this guy in. If you can’t trade for him as per point number 2 above, then look to sign him here. I would keep this list short and I doubt any are available that really fit. I like Wisniewski and Bieksa, but I am not sure they have the potential to become a top defender.
b) A potential high calibre goalie, while he’s still cheap. I originally was not on the Fasth train until recently reading this article with a quote from Pajaarvi of how good he is. That sold me. Sign Fasth and dump Khabibulin. Even if just for the fact that I won’t have to listen to the Sportsnet broadcasters call him the Oiler’s MVP anymore, it will be worthwhile.
c) A bottom six Centre. Does Brooks Laich or Vernon Fiddler fit?
d) A bottom six Winger. Does Scottie Upshall fit?

4) Where unable to sign the targeted depth UFAs, look into making a positional trade. For example, move a player in a position of strength (skill forward) for a player in a position of weakness (bottom six forward). I believe trading for depth players can be worked out over a much shorter time scale then the top end players (point 2) and therefore may be completed if unsuccessful through free agency.

5) If unable to sign or trade for the team’s key needs, then stand pat and provide opportunity for prospects to fill those voids. Hopefully, two or three of Hartkainen, Lander, Pitlick, Hamilton, Marincin, Tuebert, Plante and others can eventually fill out the bottom six and defence. However, this is not preferred over the short term. Bring in a couple of short-term contracts to make the team competitive now while waiting for some prospects to eventually deserve roster spots. If possible, let our prospects prove themselves as much as possible in Oklahoma City first.

My ideal team to start next year would be as listed below. However, this is obviously dependant on some key trades and signings to occur and as such the final roster may only have two or three changes and not all four that I have suggested.

· GOAL: Fasth; Dubnyk
· BLUE: Whitney; (1 or 1A Defenseman); Gilbert; Smid; Peckham; Petry; Foster
· CENTER: Gagner; Horcoff; RNH; (Laich or Fiddler); Brule
· LEFT WING: Hall; Pajaarvi; (Upshall); Cogliano; Jacques
· RIGHT WING: Hemsky; Eberle; O’Mark; Jones; Hartkainen

Here’s to another exciting off-season with a second first overall draft pick. I just pray that RNH and Hall can become those elite players we need and expect of them.

13 thoughts

2010-06-18T08:35:00.000-07:00

Its only a week till the NHL entry draft and I'm sick and tired of debating what the Oilers will or will not do - most importantly the never ending Seguin vs Hall debate. I hate reading about how Seguin might be Yzerman or how Seguin might be Legwand. Seguin is Seguin. Period. I remember reading a quote from Mr Bugg on Lowetides site. It was in response to a Seguin comparison to Toews (who without saying had an unreal year and is a player you want to build your team around). His comment was:

On the contrary, I don't know how anyone could possibly pick Seguin between the two if you were taking odds on 'most likely to become a Toews':

Toews: U17 Gold, 2 X U20 Gold, WCHA MVP, WC Gold, Olympic Gold, Stanley Cup
Hall: U17 Gold, 2 X U18 Gold, 2 X Memorial Cup, 2 X Mem Cup MVP

Hall is a winner. He has that Messier element to his game. He is the flashy pick and the Oilers need to unveal their #1 stud and get some positive press. IMO the Oilers will take Hall unless Boston knocks our socks off. But I'll trust MBS.

I really enjoy Elliotte Friedmans 30 thoughts so heres my shortened version all Oiler specific:

1) I expect a bounceback season from Horcoff. All reports have him working his bag off which isn't uncharacteristic of him. But he needs to stay healthy. He'll probably never cover the bet at 5.5 million but he is a useful player and the Oilers need another Horcoff or 2 in the lineup, not less.

2) My brother worked the NHL combine in Calgary and told me the Panthers were all gushing over Gudbranson. After taking Kulikov last year they will go for size and take him #3.

3) I had an interesting conversation with a multi-gazzionaire accountant in town about the rink project. He told me how Katz wasn't in a position of strength with the rink because the city knows he'll never play the "give me money or I'm moving the team" card. But he told me Katz was a schrewd negotiator and a business man and that we may see some "negotiating tactics". Its not a simple task to get everyone to agree and it takes time. This isn't a conspiracy post and we arent the Seattle Supersonics but its interesting how many rinks built recently had relocation threats.

4) O'Sullivan and Nilsson will be gone. They had a great opportunity to establish themselves last year and completely soiled themselves. Linus Omark is likely a better player than both. If I had to pick, I'd take Nilsson. I've seen him play well in a contract year before.

5) Mike Comrie may be back. Outside of the bought of mono, he played well and is a well liked player.

6) The return on Souray is so key to the team going forward. Souray is a useful player but the Oilers will be selling low. I'd love to see a deal getting a player like Dubinsky. The Oilers also need capable defensemen in a bad way. Lowe and Co have had a history of finding quality D and Souray is a valuable chip to use in finding them.

7) The Oilers will get decent return for Ethan Morreau. He's taken alot of abuse in town here but is well thought of and respected around the league. Plus he did play well down the stretch.

8) Gilbert, Gagner and Penner form the new leadership core on the team. Shawn Horcoff might get the C but he is the current whipping boy in Edmonton. I'd like to see the Oilers start the year without a captain and let the dressing room re-establish itself.

9) I've always been a firm believer in building around a stud defender. Call it the Pronger factor but Detroit has been good for so long and I see the Kings and Hawks being strong for many years. How to find the next Drew Doughty or Duncan Keith is beyond me but a top 2 draft pick isnt the only way to do so.

10) The Oilers already have 10 draft picks this year, 2nd most of all the teams in the draft. I'd bet they end up with the most picks in the draft by the time its all said and done.

11) The return on Halak was surprisingly low. Many people in the Oilogosphere are of the opinion that goalies are a dime a dozen but its easy to argue that the only difference between the Oilers this year and the Oilers 2006-2009 has been Dwayne Roloson. Now that the Oilers have committed to rebuild, it makes sense to prioritize other needs but the Flyers are a team who prove the need for quality goaltending. Could we have acquired Halak for Cogliano? Its still worth a shot.

12) The Oilers had success drafting in Sweden last year. We may see this trend continue. Lowetide loves Dylan McIlrath, I'd still push for skill. If Jeff Skinner can be picked up somehow, he is a guy I'd target.

13) I wouldn't be surprised the see the Wings sign Pisani on a one year 1 million dollar contract. Its a low risk high reward move and Pisani was a playoff gamer. After the number of man games the Oilers have lost in the last couple years I see them passing on Pisani but its a move I can see panning out for a contender. Heck, Pisani could be top line RW in Pittsburgh come playoff time.

That is all for now. Lets get this right Oilers!

I'm going to start using this blog to talk about my side project.

There are some valuable tools and information sources for fantasy hockey fans coming. Stay tuned!

This and that

2010-05-19T07:59:00.000-07:00

On Pat Quinn

The Edmonton Oilers finished last in the NHL. There are plenty of issues and its easy to blame Quin. But the roster he had plus given the injuries (Hemsky, Khabibulin, Souray particulary) I'm not sure many coaches would have done much better. You could also add that Gagner, Lubo, Staois, Grebs were hurt much of the year. I liked how OTC didnt rely on the vets, they sucked. Penner and Brule had good seasons and Smid might have if not for his inability to skate with his head up (cue the Hall is going to be Lindros discussion). You can make the argument that he may not be the best coach to lead the team going forward but not that he was the reason for the Oilers failures last season.

Hall vs Seguin

Taylor Hall is having an amazing Memorial Cup. My opinion on who the Oilers should draft has gone back and forth in the last couple months. I think its obvious to take the best player available and the only reason to consider Seguin is under the assumption that Hall and Seguin are equal players and that centers are more valuable than wingers. I believe this to be the case but that Hall is a better player. Oilers need a center to compliment Horcoff and Gagner but shouldn't pass up on Hall. That being said, the Oilers scouts are having a good run and I haven't seen either player enough to be a reliable source. Stu "Magnificant Bastard" MacGregor will get it right.

Is Malkin Available?

There are rumors out there that Pittsburgh may move Malkin to get some quality wingers to play with Crosby and Staal. Im with Jonathan Willis when he says there is no need to move Malkin". In the next 20 years, I wonder how many 23 year old Art Ross winning, Conn Smyth winning, Stanley Cup champs will be available. My guess is none. I'm all for an Oilers rebuild internally but if Malkin is truely available, I cant see why you wouldnt inquire.

When your so bad its good

Back in December I was pushing for a lottery pick as I'm sick finishing around 9th place for much of the past decade. This years team was bad, so bad it makes me wonder if it was part of the plan. There were so many obvious needs for this team which were not addressed the easiest to fix being a healthy goaltender once Khabibulin was injured and a center to help on the PK and who could win faceoffs. After failing to get Heatley, it almost seems like management decided to tank. I wont give the management team that much credit but the end result is promising.

The future is brighter

MPS and Eberle have had quality seasons and are a source of optimism for the Oilers. A young core of Gagner, MPS, Eberle and Hall or Seguin to go with Penner, Hemsky and Horcoff (who Im hoping will bounce back next season) should make forward a position of strenth for the Oilers. Like Derek Zona, I am also high on Teemu Hartikainen although admittedly not as much. All in all, I dont see the Oilers sucking much longer. We may not be a playoff team next year but if they can address the defense properly in the next year and have one of the young goaltenders step up the Oilers should be playoff bound in 2012. After 5 years off, we'd be long overdue.

The Rebuild

2010-03-12T13:43:00.000-08:00

This post should probably have been made before the deadline but has been inspired by a recent post by a friend on the same topic. Im gonna spend some time to talk about how I would go about the rebuild, how long I expect the rebuild to take and so on. First of all I'll start by saying that I thought Tambellini did a good job at the deadline. He moved a lot of salary, made a steal of a deal moving Staois and as much as I like Vishnovsky, I don't like paying 5.6 million to an again defender who doesn't play tough minutes. The return may of been less than expected but when you factor in his age/salary I'm ok with the return. As for the Grebeshkov deal, its the worst of the 3, I like Grebeshkov the player and likely would have passed on the trade. But 3+ million in cap space plus a 2nd round pick are valuable assets for a rebuilding team. The general impression about the deadline that I am getting from the Oilogosphere has been quite negative but personally I think they are just piling it on - the deadline results were ok. You cant fix a 30th place team in one day and progress was made.

As for the rebuild, I've had a hard time coming up with a concrete plan because I was torn about how to handle next season. On one hand, I really like the idea of burning the season to get another lottery pick - preferably Adam Larsson. If I'm GM of a team, I want to build from the backend out and a player like Larsson/Doughty would impact a team more than a dominant forward. At the same time, your offseason plan cannot be to lose. Your wasting the development of Gagner and Hemsky/Penner would be gone in a season or two. Plus, as as Jonathan Willis points out building a team requires more than a couple good picks. Parity has made it easy to rebuild in the NHL. The Oilers are to shambles. When your 20 points back of the 14th place team in the West, lots of changes need to be made. But the Oilers also were quite unlucky from injuries. They also lacked chemistry due to a bad mix of small players with duplicated skillsets and a leadership core of veterans whose game has left them. In my opinion, fixing these roster issues should be doable in a year or two.

Here is my plan:

1) Draft Taylor Hall. Loosing the lottery would suck but the compensation (Tyler Seguin) is no slouch. This is a no-brainer, get either one of these players and don't go off the board.
2) Move our buyout Ethan Moreau. Similar to 1999 when the Oilers were a bad team and Kelly Buckberger's game was fading, I think the changing of the guard will come. Maybe even make Sam Gagner the next captain. I would say Shawn Horcoff but he has had an off year and has lots of pressure due to his overpaid contract. Moreau has been a good soldier but move on.
3) Move one of Nilsson or O'Sullivan.
4) Play Jordan Eberle at least 40 games in the AHL. As good as he is, Eberle is slow and small. His best asset is his game smarts and learning in the AHL will IMO accelerate the learning process.
5) If you can, move Sheldon Souray. My ideal trade is Souray and Cogliano for Logan Couture. Couture is more of a 2-way player who last year had the highest QCOMP in the AHL (source Derek Zona). I doubt San Jose makes this trade and maybe we need to take salary back to make it happen but I'm just calling shots from the internet here, cut me some slack!
6) Unless an agreement can be made around 2 million/season, resign Brule to a one year contract.
7) Sign a shutdown defender (preferably Dam Hamius) and Aaron Johnson.
8) Make Chorney play in the AHL, dont resign JFJ or Strudwick.

The end result is:

Penner (4.25) - Horcoff (5.5) - Hemsky (4.1) (13.85)
Hall (2.5)- Gagner (3)- Nilsson (2) (7.5)
MPS (1.5) - Couture (0.8) - Pouliot (0.8) (3.1)
Comrie (1) - Poltuny (0.7) - Stone (0.7) (2.4)
Jones (0.7)
Stortini (0.7)

Gilbert (4) - Whitney (4) (8)
Smid (1.5) - UFA (Hamius 3.5) (5)
Johnson (1.0) - Peckham (0.7) (1.7)
UFA (2)

Khabibulin (3.75)
JDD (0.7)

Total of 49.4 but thats optimistic in the Souray trade assuming we dont have to take any salary back.

Comrie has become a versatile player who although small, isn't that soft anymore. I dont mind keeping him around. For some reason, the faith in Pouliot is still there but I doubt he can stay healthy for a whole season. He'd be a player to upgrade. If the Oilers could somehow land Dam Hamius, he's the UFA I'd target. This roster is very best case scenario with cap space to add if needed. The last item is goaltending - the most important position in hockey but also the easiest to fix. If Khabibulin remains healthy, I think this is a playoff team. Otherwise, we could be in a similar situation where poor goaltending gets us in a lottery position. And after-all whats a "Chicago rebuild" without finishing 5th and winning the lottery. Like the Khabibulin contract, its far from ideal but ultimately, with a little luck, I think the playoffs are attainable.

Looking Ahead Through the Eyes of an Optimist

2010-03-10T20:56:00.000-08:00

--by guest writer Dustin

The 2009/2010 NHL season has had few exciting moments for Oiler’s fans, who are some of the most passionate hockey fans in the world. I wouldn’t be surprised if more people in the United States were aware that Hillary Duff is now engaged versus even knowing what sport the Edmonton Oiler’s play. And the fact that I am even bringing this up is a little embarrassing but it also highlights what little there is of note on the Edmonton Oiler’s this year.

Trade deadline day 2010 has come and gone and I am in the camp that thinks Steve Tambellini (Tamby) did a decent job. Sure I would be happier if he was able to also move any of Pisani, Moreau and O’Sullivan. However, it was a good start for next year in making the team bigger, younger and cheaper. I am not going to discuss the trade deadline any further as an excessive amount of blogs already cover this topic well enough. Instead the focus of this particular article is going to look right passed the NHL playoffs [Could Pittsburgh really be there again? Amazing.] and ahead to the Entry Draft and Free Agency. I know it is early but I cannot resist thinking ahead already. Uggh – it si going to be a long off-season this year!

I listened to the audio clip of Tamby after deadline day and I recall him saying something along the lines of (I am paraphrasing here): “the team is different today, the team will be different this spring and the team will be different again by the start of next season”. I think we can easily assume that this means Tamby was not able to make all of the changes at the 2010 deadline that the Oiler’s had “hashed out” to do in the near future. Does this mean there were no takers on Moreau or Pisani? Also, I think many of us can agree that Souray would have been moved if he were healthy and he is a good option to move this upcoming spring/summer.

Lowetide wrote a recent article that broke down the Oiler’s salaries for next year and to start things off, I am going to excerpt his salary breakdown below.

· GOAL: Khabibulin (3.75M); Deslauriers (1.1M-est)

· BLUE: Souray (5.4M); Gilbert (4M); Whitney (4M); Smid (1.3M); Chorney (.942M); Peckham (.700M-est); Aaron Johnson (.600M-est)

· CENTER: Seguin (3.75M-est); Gagner (3.0M-est); Horcoff (5.5M); Pouliot (.850M-est); Potulny (1.2M-est)

· LEFT WING: Penner (4.25M); O'Sullivan (2.925M); Moreau (2M); Cogliano (1.45M-est); Ryan Jones (.975M)

· RIGHT WING: Hemsky (4.1M); Nilsson (2M); Brule (2.25M-est); Eberle (1.187M)

I am going to propose a few changes right off the hop and I have organized these in an order from the easier to achieve to the more difficult to achieve.

1. The Oiler’s draft Taylor Hall 1st overall and play him behind Penner on the left side. For now we will slide O’Sullivan into that vacant centre position and move Gagner up the depth chart one spot.
2. Tamby either trades Moreau and Nilsson for anything or buys them out. Then I would bring Stortini back into the lineup.
3. Tamby signs pending UFA Colby Armstrong to replace Bobby Nilsson. Armstrong is from Lloydminster so he may actually want to play for the Oilers and I think he would be a great fit for a young team looking to get bigger. Additionally, he should come at a reasonable price.
4. Tamby either trades Souray for a younger and cheaper hardnosed defenseman or if a younger and cheaper hardnosed defenseman can be obtained through free-agency (e.g., Volchenkov), he trades Souray for prospects and picks.

These changes would leave us with the following lineup:

· GOAL: Khabibulin (3.75M); Deslauriers (1.1M-est)

· BLUE: Gilbert (4M); Whitney (4M); Shut-down guy (3.5M); Smid (1.3M); Chorney (.942M); Peckham (.700M-est); Aaron Johnson (.600M-est)

· CENTER: Gagner (3.0M-est); O'Sullivan (2.925M); Horcoff (5.5M); Pouliot (.850M-est); Potulny (1.2M-est)

· LEFT WING: Penner (4.25M); Hall (3.75M-est); Cogliano (1.45M-est); Ryan Jones (.975M)

· RIGHT WING: Hemsky (4.1M); Brule (2.25M-est); Armstrong (2M); Eberle (1.187M); Stortini (0.7M)

The team above is approximately 3 Million dollars cheaper than what Lowetide originally posted and I tend to think this team is not that far off of being a playoff team. Although we still have some size issues up front that will need to be addressed, I can see them in that 7-10 Western Conference battle at the end of the year. I would love to see us move O’Sullivan and land a first line centre, but realistically that will not happen since not too many teams are looking to trade away their first-line centre. I really do not want to speculate any further on potential changes, as it ends up leaving things way too wide open since there are literally thousands of options that we could discuss.

I think the plan moving forward will and should be to bank on the kids getting better with experience. I pray that the Oiler’s management is not looking for any quick fixes this off-season, as it is pretty clear to me that a team gains the most long-term by having players get better within the organization. In a salary cap world the name of the game is to accumulate great contracts (e.g., in Edmonton you just have to look at Hemsky’s contract) and this is not done through signing the most coveted UFAs. I would like to see Gagner given every chance to become our first line centre and whether it happens next year or the following year, it does not matter. Even if two of our young prospects in Hall, Gagner, Eberle and MPS can grow into legitimate first-line players, I think we will have a very good team coming to Edmonton in 2011-2012 or 2012-2013.

Team Canada Selections Made

2009-12-30T10:00:00.000-08:00

My predictions were close but there were a couple surprises for sure. Here is Steve Yzerman's selections with my guess as to what the lines will be.

Nash - Crosby (A) - Iginla (A)
Heatley - Thornton - Marleau
Staal - Getzlaf - Perry
Morrow - Toews - Richards
Bergeron

Seabrock - Keith
Neidermayer (C) - Pronger (A)
Boyle - Weber
Doughty

Brodeur
Luongo
Fleury

Overall I'm happy with the selections. The lack of Calgary Flames on D is surprising but the replacements are just as good. I was off on 5 selections that I'll go over but Team Canada is going to be a good team regardless:

Ward over Fleury

I thought Ward was a bigger difference maker than Fleury in each of their recent playoff successes. The rest of Canada thinks Fleury is a no-brainer. Its the 3rd goaltender so its not a big deal and I'm OK either way.

Seabrock over Rhegher

The way Yzerman explains it makes sense. He wanted the chemistry over Keith and Seabrook and its probably a good call.

Boyle over Bouwmeester

Flip a coin? Dan Boyle is a difference maker but Bouwmeester is still very underrated in my opinion. I'd still take Bouwmeester but it could be a left handed vs right handed decision or a PP decision where Boyle is the better player.

Bergeron over Smyth

Personally I don't like the choice over Bergeron. Smyth may not have been the best choice because of his injury but Bergeron has been injured quite a bit as well. Smyth has been a difference maker this year for LA (ask Anze Kopitar).

Staal over Stamkos

I think I overlooked Staal in my original selections. Staal has come on fast and Stamkos has slowed a bit over the last while. I like the choice of Staal.

Picking Team Canada

2009-12-23T10:55:00.000-08:00

With the Olypmic's coming up, I thought it would be fun to predict Team Canada's roster.

Nash - Crosby - Iginla
Heatley - Thornton - Marleau
Smyth - Getzlaf - Perry
Morrow - Toews - Richards
Doan
Stamkos

Pronger - Keith
Neidermayer - Rhegher
Boumeister - Weber
Doughty

Brodeur
Luongo
Ward

The lines I use feature a couple sets of players with established chemistry - Heatley/Thornton and Getzlaf/Perry. I'm very open to the idea of Penner over Smyth to play with Getzlaf and Perry who have been successful before for Anaheim. Being an Oilers fan I refused to allow my homerism to reflect in my lines so I left Penner off. But if Steve Yzerman picks him I'll be thrilled. The other move I'd consider is St Louis over Marleau. Stamkos likely wouldn't see the ice in the deciding games thought. Also as I coach I'd use a short leash on Thornton. He has yet to bring it when it matters but is too good to leave off the roster. For a similar reason, I'd chose Brodeur over Luongo.

Oh ya and Crosby would be my captain. Iginla and Neidermayer as assistants.

GO CANADA!!

Get a lottery pick

2009-12-23T10:33:00.000-08:00

Over the past couple days, I dug through some of my "post ideas" that I had partially written. One of the most interesting ones was focused on the idea that the best thing that could happen to the Oilers is an injury to Khabibulin. The basic premise was that, similar to what Colorado did last season, it would allow the Oilers to ride average goaltending (JDD/Dubnyk) to a lottery pick. Now that Khabibulin is hurt along with their best forward its pretty clear the Oilers should be aiming for a 2010 lottery pick.

I'm a firm believer in Stu MacGregor and the scouting department. They have delivered solid return in the first round with Gagner, Eberle and MPS but the franchise caliber players are gone at the position they are drafting at each year. The Oilers aren't that bad of a team. With a bit of luck or by winning a trade or 2 they could in fact make the playoffs. But its not likely and I'm sick of finishing in 9th place.

That being said, I dont think the Oilers need a full blown rebuild. The injuries allow them to tank and keep enough veterans around to remain competitive. Like every year, its important to decide which players to keep in the short and long term. Word recently from the Ottawa Sun is that the Oilers are looking to move some larger salary cap hits. It could be a bogus rumor but it fits along nicely with my opinion that the Oilers should be lottery bound so I'll play. The article mentions Souray, Horcoff and Visnovsky as players the Oilers are shopping - players who can help a team win now and in the short term but are also well paid.

Horcoff - Apparently he is hurt but his effectiveness is really only when he is at 100% and can out battle players all over the ice. He is a valuable player and I don't mind keeping him but he isn't covering the bet nor do I think he will. For this reason, in a cap world, he has to be considered movable if anyone would possibly take his contract.

Visnovsky - I wouldn't move him. He is too good and makes others better.

Souray - His injury history and possible high return make him a guy I would dangle. Love the player but and what he brings but would be accepting phone calls about him.

The Oilers are also burdened with too many non-value contracts. Several of which are for players who are on the downside of their careers and a couple others whose skillset is duplicated on the roster. I also believe a team looking to rebuild should be under the cap to be able to afford emerging players and open trade opportunities.

Staois - I'd probably keep him. He is slightly overpaid but is capable to handle top 4 minutes over the short term and is a good leader. You need to keep guys like him around for his experience and I believe in having because its the hardest position to learn and lets players learn slowly. That being said, he is far from untradeable I'm just not shopping him.

Moreau - I'd move him. I believe the guy doing the talking needs to be able to lead by example. Moreau hasn't been able to do this for a while and a change of leadership should be made.

O'Sullivan - I was wrong. O'Sullivan must have rode Kopitar to make his numbers look good but he doesnt appear to be half the player I anticipated. Given that the Oilers have too many small forwards, I'd move O'Sullivan. Coupled with his salary, I'd move him for a hockey puck.

Nilsson - I was wrong again but Vic Ferrari does a good job explaining why. Nilsson's skill level is high but I think Omark or Eberle could replace him for half the cost next season. We already have Comrie who can replace him soon for half the cost. Another player I'd move for a hockey puck.

Pisani - His reputation as a clutch player could give him some cachet. Pisani's contract is off the books next season but I have my doubts after 2 years of injuries/health concerns that he'll ever be the same player again. But he is also the kind of player Detroit would sign for 900k. If Pisani is willing to return at half price, I'd keep him.

All in all, if the Oilers get a lottery pick and clear cap space I'm OK with the job Tambellini did this year. The best time to clear cap space is at the deadline. Being a team at the cap in a lottery position says a lot about the job management has done. While most of the contracts aren't Tambelinni's fault, this team needs some smart contracts and cap flexibility.

There are positives like Penner and Gagner but this team has been lacking traction most of the past decade. Changes need to be made. Progress needs to be made. A lottery pick would be a good start.

Tracking Filatov

2009-12-01T08:59:00.000-08:00

Once again its been too long since I've posted but I'm too much of a fan to sit and complain so instead I sit in the corner and sulk. One topic I'm following this season is the progress of Nikita Filatov. He is a player who many hyped as a rookie of the year candidate this year and HF had him as the 3rd best prospect this fall. Filatov possesses game breaking skill that could make him a topend offensive player in the NHL. I also have him in my keeper league ;) But in all seriousness, it should be of interest to Oilers fans as the Oilers have not converted many top 6 offensive prospects into players over the last decade - Hemsky and Horcoff being the exception. Gagner is tracking well and Penner well I'm not sure what to think of him despite his obvious turnaround this year. It was also an interesting and creative move by Blue Jackets GM Scott Howson, whom I miss more and more each day, to get Filatov more playing time. The threat of Filatov staying is Russia will be a definate concern but at least they arent wasting a crucial development year.

It's a small sample size but Filatov is off to a strong start in the KHL with 9 points in 5 games thus far. Until Filatov plays over 20 games I wont even look at NHLE's and, even then, luck would be a large factor. The KHL is typically a low scoring league where a PPG pace is considered a very strong season. Regardless, a PPG pace would be considered a success and Filatov is tracking above that threshold.

Because of the small number of games, we really cant conclude much. Did he have a 5 pt night against a bottom feeder? Is he getting all his points on the PP or from very soft minutes? Most importantly, Filatov is getting more minutes and likely (based on his numbers) more offensive minutes. Early on, this is looking like a good move for Columbus.

Bring on the new seas!

2009-10-01T15:08:00.001-07:00

I'm stealing this video from HBomb at Lowetide's site but I thought it was a good intro for the upcoming season. With the new season comes the retirement of one of the games all-time great, Joe Sakic, in an Olympic year. While I hope I'm wrong, there is still potential for the Oilers to be a good team, but there are too many holes on the defensive half of the ice for the team to make the playoffs. The Olympics could very well be the only hockey Oilers fans can really get excited about this year.

NHL 91 - Game 6

2009-08-19T09:18:00.000-07:00

Not an exciting summer so far for Oilers fans. A mediocre goaltending signing, a minor trade (Brodziak) and an solid day at the draft. Now that the Heatley fiasco seems to have past, it appears the decision by the team seems to be to stick with the kids which might be an ok bet. I'd still like to see them address their weakness down the middle - especially on the face-off circle and PK but I'm willing to see how the team reacts to the new coaches. There were numerous off years by Oilers forwards last season and as long as they don't burn the season by waiting to the deadline to address need, the decision to wait is one I can live with. But we've seen this movie before and it doesn't end well.

I received a forward this morning with a link to the following site which is very well done:

http://game6.nhl91.com/

The 1991 final is a bit of a sore spot for me. I'm too young (well hardly) to remember the 80's cup wins and early 90's is when my hockey passion really developed. Talk about bad timing. To this day I'm bitter the Oilers didnt beat the North Stars and for some reason (that I no longer remember) couldn't stand Bobby Smith. Its a series I'd love to hear Bruce's take on. Either way, I think an Oilers/Penguins final would have been much better.

Growing up I played a lot of the early NHL video games from EA Sports. 1991-1995 I played for hours. Early on the best way to score was the wrap-around. It got so easy that we made a no wrap-around rule. In later years it was all about getting one timers. Pavel Bure was a legend in those games. I hardly play video games anymore but that video is well done and reminds me of endless hours of good times!

Only 6 weeks till puck drop...

Stanley Cup predictions

2009-05-28T21:42:00.000-07:00

This has been my dream playoff draft year. I went with the Pens and Wings as the finals team in all of my drafts and am looking forward to pay day. My 3rd round predictions were bang on but they weren't exactly bold predictions. The finals prediction wont be so easy.

Redwings vs Penguins

In 1984, the young Edmonton Oilers entered Long Island against the juggernaut New York Islanders and 4 time defending Stanley Cup champions. Led by budding superstars Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier the Oilers entered the finals with relative ease including 2 sweeps and a tough 7 game series against their rivals the Calgary Flames. The Oilers would be a confident bunch had they not been handed a lesson in last years finals by the same New York Islanders.

This year, the Pittsburgh Penguins head to Detroit where the Red Wings have been the dominant team in the NHL for the past 18 years and are the defending Stanley Cup champions. Riding the excellent performances of their young superstars, Crosby and Malkin, the Penguins have had a relatively easy post season blazing by both the Flyers and a sweep of the 2006 champion Carolina Hurricanes. Their only real test so far has been their 2nd biggest rivals - Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals. The Penguins should be a confident team but like the 1984 Oilers, the Penguins are facing a team in the finals that beat them easily the previous year. Last years finals went to 6 games but should have been over in 4 or 5. Detroit was the much better team.

And thats about where the similarities end. Detroit is still the favorite. Its a bold move to bet against the Red Wings but I think I will. Last year, Malkin was non-existent in the playoffs. This year he has been a force. And Crosby has been better. Detroit has coasted through much of the playoffs this year but Datsyuk hasnt shown up for many games this post season and their anchor on defense, sure Hall of Famer and entering discussions for best defensemen alltime, Nicolas Lidstrom is banged up. Detroit is deeper than Pittsburgh has more experience than the Penguins but unless Datsyuk can return to form I think Crosby and Malkin will be good enough to overcome the Detroit depth. This will also be Sergei Gonchar's step into stardom. He is very underrated.

I'll admit here that I am biased in this prediction by the fact that I don't want to see Hossa shun the Oilers and pick his cup. Good on Hossa for turning down millions for his chance at the cup, I just don't want to see it. One thing I know is that the series will be closer this year than last.

In fact, its going to be epic.

Key matchup: Osgood vs Fleury
Prediction: Penguins in 7

Oilers hire Quinn and Renney

2009-05-27T22:18:00.000-07:00

I guess its obvious that I wont be complaining about the coaching decision after declaring Pat Quinn and Brett Sutter my two choices for next head coach. Adding Tom Renney, who is apparently and excellent tactition, as associate head coach is a pure bonus and as long as the they can can co-exist I believe they will compliment themselves nicely. Frankly I'm stunned that we were able to land both coaches. I'm not going to cover Quinn and Renney much - google is a wonderful tool. But here are some couple good reads on Quinn by Lowetide and Brownlee and another one by Lowetide on Tom Renney.

Experience

Whether the team is winning, losing, making mistakes or getting everything right, experience within the organization is valuable. The Oilers roster is thin on experience and could use some more but these additions to the coaching staff should help support these players. For Tambellini, you cant risk hiring a green coach to run the show with such a young team. The impact could be disastrous. As an Oilers fan, you may not care because the punishment is likely a lottery pick but as a GM with your job on the line, I think it was a no brainer.

Regarding Bucky

It seems there are many people whose only complaints about the coaching decision was that Kelly Buchberger was made assistant coach. I have no problems with Bucky and for the most part am not concerned with complementary coaches. Its like complaining about 4th liners. Sure it matters but I'd much rather talk head coach and first line talent. Coinsidently I think the Oilers top 6 forwards are in definate need of an upgrade. As for the old boys club abuse, I get it. After falling on their faces after 2006 Kevin Lowe and MacT deserve some lumps. While they have made mistakes (which also adds to their experience) I dont get what Bucky has done wrong to be associated with it. I'd wager most NHL organizations have ex-players on their staff so its not like the Oilers are alone here. Bucky has paid his dues and quite honestly has almost as much coaching experience as Dan Blysma and a similar (but better) career as a player. Sure Huddy would have been a better choice but my guess is that Huddy goes where MacT goes. Move along...

Implications

To my eye there are several observations to be made. Most of which are positive.

- Tom Renney was likely promised the coaching job once Quinn retires.
- Katz pulled out the wallet to get the best available staff he could buy. After seeing Katz pursue Hossa last summer with a truckload of money its clear Katz is committed to winning. All we need now is the rink announcement.
- There is potential for the "Olympic effect" to benefit the Oilers this year. With the Oilers loaded with former Team Canada coaches and execs, there is the possibility players want to play in Edmonton for the chance to get noticed. Getting the new rink announced before July 1 would also help boost the teams image (yes I meant to comment on the new rink twice).
- The Oilers have gradually been trying to build a puck possession skill team since 2006. Last years team was not a success, due mostly to the regression in play by Nilsson and the lack of progress from Gagner and Cogliano. From most reports, Quinn likes his gritty bruisers, so it will be interesting to see what management does this summer with the team. Building a winner is not a one year task and my hope is that they stick with the plan. Our defense is quality (sign Grebeshkov) and I believe Gagner and Cogliano will progress this season like we were all hoping for last season. This team still needs a top-end forward but I think a roster overall isn't necessary. That and the fact that overhauling the roster and coaching staff is too much change. This franchise needs some continuity to gain traction.

Franzen takes out Kanes mouthgaurd

2009-05-25T09:36:00.001-07:00

Funny video of a clip I missed from the weekend.

3rd round predictions

2009-05-19T18:14:00.000-07:00

This post is overdue but I've been in NYC till late last night. My second round predictions were off thanks to the upset by the Hurricanes but I don't think I was alone on that prediction. Canucks vs Blackhawks I thought would be closer and would have been if not for Chicago's lethal PP. The Ducks put up a better fight than I thought and the Pens/Capitals series lived up to expectations.

Red Wings vs Blackhawks

My gut tells me this one will be closer than I'm predicting but I think Detroit's experience will win out in this series. The Chicago offense lit up Luongo and a pair of decent pvp centers in Daniel Sedin and Ryan Kelser but Detroit is deep and rely on winning individual battles. Detroit defends too well as a team and has the skill to match Chicago.

Key matchup: Lidstrom vs Kane
Prediction: Wings in 5

Hurricanes vs Pittsburgh

Hurricanes have been surprising to say the least. I've watched many Canes games and they defend well and have had the best player in each series thus far. I doubt Eric Staal will be the best player in this series.

Key matchup: Crosby vs Staal
Prediction: Pens in 5

Predicting 5 games verdicts in each series is not exactly earth shattering. At least its been my prediction from day 1 and I should get some nice draft payouts in a month or so ;)

2nd Round Predictions

2009-04-30T11:21:00.000-07:00

Bruins vs Hurricanes

The Bruins have a very good set of forwards with balances scoring in their top 9:

Axelsson – Savard – Kessel
Lucic – Krejci – Ryder
Kobasew – Bergeron – Recchi

The Canes were great against the Devils. Eric Staal was a force and Cam Ward shut the door in net. Joni Pitkanen also had a great series. The Canes can skate and hit well and have good playoff experience but the Bruins are just too good.

Key matchup: Chara vs Staal
Prediction: Bruins in 5

Pens vs Caps

This series is gonna be dynamite! Crosby and Malkin vs Ovechkin (and Backstrom/Semin). The Caps seemed lucky to win in 7 but if not for Henrik Lunquist the caps would never have been in that position. Pittsburgh has been a much better team since Blysma became coach plus the return of Gonchar and the additions of Guerin/Kunitz improve their skill/depth. Malkin was better than Ovechkin in the first round and I'll take Crosby in the playoffs against anyone not named Datskyuk. Despite this, I expect a better second round from Ovechkin and Green.

Key matchup: Crosby vs Ovechkin
Prediction: Pens in 7

Ducks vs Red Wings

The Wings are the class of the NHL again this year and I think the only teams that can stop them are the Canucks or the Bruins. Its hard to discount a team with Pronger and Neidermayer however and the games will be close. Getzlaf is going to have his hands full with 2 of the best two-way centres in the game. Detroit also has a much deeper lineup.

Key matchup: Datsyuk vs Getzlaf
Prediction: Wings in 5

Blackhawks vs Canucks

There are tons of interesting battles in this series. Canucks employ a very defensive system but Chicago just might have enough depth to crack it in Ladd, Versteeg, Bolland, Sharp and Byfuglien. The Canucks have 2 under-rated players in Kelser and Borrows and the battle between Toews a beauty. I expect the Canucks to hold on if their injury concerns from last series have been remedied. Flip a coin.

Key matchup: Seabrook/Keith vs The sisters
Prediction: Canucks in 7

Forget Marion, Get Marian

2009-04-28T13:40:00.000-07:00

Now that the Flames are out of the playoffs I can start enjoying hockey again. All that I need now is a sweep by the by the Wings and Blackhawks. The last season for the Oilers was a bust. But I'm not going to comment on that any more at this time. Instead I'll focus on the team going forward. Last night Lowetide posted his Oilers offseason plan and he brought up a move that I completely agree with.

The move? Target Marian Gaborik.

Fortunately last summers bold move to overpay Marion Hossa into playing here didnt work. Hossa is an amazing player but 9 years and 81 million for a player who would be 39 by the end of the contract would not have covered the bet. Instead of trying the same move, I think Marian Gaborik is the guy I'd go after this year. He should be cheaper and given his injury history, the term would be much shorter. Gaborik is an excellent player but his knock as been that he has been injury prone.

Here are Gaboriks stats since the lockout:

On a PPG basis, Gaborik is an elite performer. Being a PPG player on Minnesota is harder to do than most teams especially playing in one of the more defensive NW divisions. Gaborik hasnt played a full-season since the lockout - last season being his worst. Make no mistake, however, Marian Gaborik is one biggest impact players in the game.

2006-2007 - The Wild got off to a 10-1 start with Gaborik healthy and playing. After that, Gaborik went down with a groin injury and started to slide. Gaborik missed 34 games and the Wild went 15-17-2. Overall with Gaborik in the lineup the Wild went 33-9-6.

2007-2008 - Gaborik played in 77 games - and the Wild won the division.

2008-2009 - Gaborik plays 17 games and the Wild miss the playoffs despite a late season push with Gaborik in the lineup. As of Feb 25, 2009 - over the past 27 games in which Gaborik has scored a goal, the Wild were 23-0-4 (dating back to the previous season).

Kevin Lowe has been targeting a star player since Chris Pronger left town. I think its the right approach to build from the top down but to Lowe's defense, its not easy getting stars to play in Edmonton. The odds of Gaborik actually signing here are slim. Nevertheless, Gaborik is the kind of impact player that with a couple healthy seasons could help the Oilers gain traction. Confidence is contageous and players like Hemsky, Gagner and Cogliano would IMO thrive off Gaboriks influence and the impact would be residual.

Steve Tambellini has a list of items to address this season such as goaltending, team competiveness and toughness. But they've been looking for a winger to play with Hemsky for 3 years. Despite Gaboriks injury history, I think he is best case scenario.

Oilers Fire MacTavish

2009-04-15T12:42:00.000-07:00

The email from the Oilers pipeline had the subject line "Oilers relieve MacTavish of head coaching duties" but Tambellini painted it as a mutual agreement between MacT and the management. Whether on not he stepped aside or the Oilers fired him doesnt matter anymore. After 8 seasons the Oilers will have a new coach next season.

Overall I am happy with the outcome. MacTavish is a decent coach who had a bad year. Sure his wit and quality post game interviews will be missed but his record over the past 8 seasons wont. Surely the Oilers wont average 9th place in the conference for the next 8 years too. The Oilers were built to be a skill team and needed to be a dominant on special teams to be a good team. The power play and penalty kill were 22nd and 27th in the league respectively. MacTavish can shift the blame all he wants but thats reason enough for change.

Despite this, MacTavish is likely the scapegoat for a team with some serious potential but equally serious problems. The lack of a 2nd centre who could play tough minutes and win draws hurt the team. All in all MacTavish was right when he says the Oilers have size and competitiveness issues. Trading away our only top 6 forward (Cole) with size and grit at the deadline for another small player in O'Sullivan left a hole in the team and it showed down the stretch. After inheriting a team last season, this will be Tambellini's chance to show his moxy and put his stamp on the team. While the roster has holes, the Oilers arent far from being a playoff team. A topic we'll have all summer to discuss.

My vote for a replacement is Pat Quinn or Brett Sutter. Even though many of the old boys have the knowledge of what it takes to win championships there aren't many with a coaching background. The Oilers aren't a championship calibre team and need to hire a teacher not a ex-Oiler, something MacTavish was fairly proficient at.

Steve Tambellini welcome to the spotlight.

Off to Sweden

2009-03-13T09:08:00.000-07:00

I'm heading off to Sweden and to the Czech Republic to do some traveling and watch some hockey. This will be after a pit stop in Dublin for St Patty's day. My goal for the trip was to get a game or two to watch Linus Omark play in anticipation of him coming to North America next year. Unfortunately Lulea is down 3-1 in the series vs Frolunda and the odds of them still being in the playoffs when I get there aren't looking good. Here is a video montantage of some of Omarks highlights:

I wish I had a video montage.

It will be interesting to see how Omark's size will be effected by the North American game. He does have great speed and skill. On a team full of smurfs, the Oilers may not have room for another undersized forward but if Omark is good enough to play they'll find room for him ... I'd hope. I'll post here some hockey highlights from the trip and if I get to see Lulea play, I'll report my take here.

As for the Oilers, they still owe me for losing the SCF when I went to the world cup in Germany. They have a relatively easy schedule but have only won 3 of their last 11. Last nights game against Atlanta had some promising moments, like Patrick O'Sullivans goal and the play of the 4th line (18-51-27). But that loss cant happen if the Oilers are serious about the playoffs. Atlanta is 10 points back of the Oilers, on the road and missing their star player Kovalchuk. Reasoner getting the winner was too predictable. The Oilers dominated the overtime and I'm fairly sure would have won the shootout emphasizing the error made by Gilbert and Cogs on OT winner. Its interesting that now that the offense seems to be back, they are starting to give up 3-4 goals a game along with several high quality chances. The Oilers are gonna need to wake up, especially Ales Hemsky who has been MIA for about 10 games now. Ales Kotalik had some good chances but is running out of time with Hemsky and needs to produce for the Oilers sake and for his impending UFA status. I'm hoping for a pleasant surprise when I come back. An appearance in the playoffs would be fun and incredibly valuable for the young players. Go Oilers!

Deadline a success

2009-03-05T08:01:00.000-08:00

Steve Tambellini and Kevin Lowe had a solid deadline yesterday. They made 2 trades moving Erik Cole for Patrick O'Sullivan and a 2nd rounder. Then they flipped the 2nd rounder for Ales Kotalik. The O'Sullivan deal was a steal. Picking up a player as skilled as O'Sullivan for a player in Cole who likely wasn't going to resign here is great value. The fact that O'Sullivan is signed for 2 more years at a million less per year can only be seen as a positive. For an interesting read on Patrick O'Sullivans troubled childhood read this article by Gare Joyce. It really makes you respect what O'Sullivan has battled through. The second trade was a move to get someone to play with Ales Hemsky. My guess is the Oilers are hoping the Czech connection will pan out as Hemsky and Kotalik are apparently good friends. We've seen Petr Sykora mesh well with Hemsky and we can only hope Kotalik, who has a good shot, can mesh as well. The 2nd rounder is a lot to give up but the Oilers see Kotalik as a player who can have chemistry with Hemsky. For perspective, the Reasoner for Samsonov trade also included a 2nd round Oilers pick that turned into Milan Lucic. I'd still make that trade because of the run but its worth pointing out that these picks can be valuable. If this works out, Kotalik will resign and otherwise as a UFA the Oilers can let him walk (and the trade will be a bust). My gut feeling is that this trade will work out.

Here us the nitty gritty O'Sullivan/Kotalik (courtesy behind the net):

Some more observations:

- The most promising stat for me is the improvement in O'Sullivans game from last season to this year. This year he is playing with lesser teamates but has managed to swing his corsi into the black. In addition, he is now a player who is on for more GF than GA on a Kings team that has scored 164 goals and let in 184. The Oilers have been outshot most of the season and adding a player like O'Sullivan will help out. O'Sullivan also has 200 shots which would put him 2nd on the Oilers behind Souray.

- Another bonus for O'Sullivan is his PK numbers. On LA he plays 2 minutes a game on the PK and his GAON/60 is 5.21. That would be 2nd best on the Oilers and twice as good as Shawn Horcoffs numbers. Hopefully O'Sullivan can help out Horcoff on the PK.

- Kotalik doesnt kill penalties but has good PP numbers. His PTS/60 of 4.19 would be 4th behind Hemsky, Nilsson and Gilbert.

- Both Kotalik and O'Sullivan are likely to get a shot with Horcoff/Hemsky before Penner does. Even though Penner has decent results statistically he hasnt scored enough goals playing with Hemsky. My guess is that if Kotalik does well with Hemsky the Oilers try to move him. At 4.25 million that will be hard to do though.

- Robert Nilsson and MA Pouliot are gonna have a hard time getting minutes for the rest of the season but the Oilers have some nice depth up front now. More moves will come in the offseason as they cant protect 16 forwards.

- The Oilers decided to stick with Cogliano as the hard minutes centre (although its debatable that Brodziak is that guy). But with Cogliano playing with Pisani, that's the way I see it. The Oilers have needed a veteran centre all year but the choice of Cogliano is gonna yield long term results. I think its best for Coglianos development and good on the Oilers for sticking with Gagner and Cogliano. This decision I'm ok with even though there could be some frustration in the short term.

Overall the Oilers added some valuable pieces without sacrificing in the short term and I'm happy with the trades. The youth core of Gagner, Cogliano, Gilbert and Grebeshkov would benefit nicely from some post season experience. These moves are a step in the right direction.

PS For an excellent read on applied statistics in sports, read this article from the New York Times about the Houston Rockets and Shane Battier. I'm not a basketball fan at all and the article was one of the most interesting things I've read in years. It will require you to sign up for a NY Times account but its free.

Deadline day

2009-03-04T07:52:00.000-08:00

Today's deadline will hopefully be exciting for Oilers fans. If they can make a couple good moves without sacrificing the future, a date with Calgary in the first round is a possibility - how fun would that be!* I'd like to see the Oilers add a veteran centre who kills penalties and wins faceoffs. That will move Cogliano to the wing or to the 4th line but ultimately once the playoffs are on, I'd expect MacT to move a couple kids to the 4th line and rely on veterans. This would be ok as the playoff experience would be valuable regardless. The Oilers could use a top 6 scoring forward and a backup goalie as well. I am OK with Peckham as the 7th defender but Lowe has a solid history of finding reliable 4-6 defenders and if a defender is acquired I'm for it.

With the cap likely to go down and the Oilers at 49 (max 50) contracts, they would be well advised to ditch some salary and deal some fringe players. Players who I would be ok if they moved are Schremp, Pouliot and Nilsson. I don't like Moreau or Staois' contracts going forward but I see no reason to trade these guys before the playoffs unless the offers are outstanding. Moving these guys in the offseason should be considered however.

As for likely trading partners I'll throw out there:

Islanders and Flyers - the usual trading partners
Rangers - they seem to have a lot of reliable defensive forwards but dont score many goals. The Sather connection plus the Oilers surplus skill guys might make a trade a possibility
Bruins/Hurricanes - Rumors for Cole have been around for weeks
Kings - They talked alot last season when the Oilers were after Camalleri and obviously in the Visnovsky trade. I'd love to get a guy like Frolov.
Maple Leafs - While the Burke/KLo feud probably hasn't simmered enough, Tambellini has good relations with Burke and TO looks to be selling.

I'll post after the deadline with my thoughts about the Oilers moves (or lack there of).

The most encouraging loss of the season?

The Oilers lost 5-4 in OT last night to a Nashville Predators team that has owned them for the last couple years. Nashville is a good team, physical, solid leadership in Arnott and Weber and have an under rated coach. In the last couple seasons they have lost Forsberg, Kariya, Radulov and Sullivan. With Sullivan coming back after almost 2 years on the IR, the teams biggest need has been addressed without any cost. Nashville has a tough division and a tough schedule which makes me think that they can still be beat in a standings race.

If not for the egg laid by the first line last night the Oilers win the game. Gagner, Cole, Cogliano, Pouliot and Smid had excellent games. JFJ looked like a real NHL player last night as well and that was by far his best game as an Oiler. Grebeshkov, Stortini and Brodziak have also came on of late. The Oilers problem all season has been secondary scoring and its been a lot of pressure put on the kids to succeed and for the most part they haven't. But if last nights game can spark some confidence in the 2nd line that bodes well for the Oilers chances at the post season.

On Dustin ... again

There is so much discussion around Dustin Penner in the Oilogosphere. He must wish he signed for cheap in Anaheim to stay out of the spotlight but last night proves he is an important part of the first line. As per Trakor/Bruce on Lowetides site

Penner leads this team with 5 game winning goals.
Penner has just as many goals as Horcoff and more points than Cole, Gagner, and Nilsson.
Penner is a is +3.
Penner has the 2nd best PTS/60 on the team.
Penner has the 2nd best GFON/60 on the team.
Only Shawn Horcoff has a better GFON/GAON/60 ratio.
Only Shawn Horcoff has faced harder QualComp.
Horpensky now sits at EV +21/-5.
Penner leads all Oiler forwards by a fair margin in SC differential.

The conclusions (not included) made after these stats by Traktor were wrong about MacTavish but the stats are still solid. MacTavish isn't the reason Penner takes nights off. He takes way too many nights off and if Hemsky is as good as we think he is, our top line LW has to have more than 14 goals. But Penner is our best available option and while there is room for an upgrade, he belongs on the #1 line.

Once again, big day today. Hopefully a couple good moves are available.

*I just remembered I won a Molson prize pack from ched for knowing Esa Tikannen scored the last series winner between Edmonton and Calgary a couple weeks ago and forgot to claim my prize!

Buyers or sellers?

2009-02-06T16:19:00.000-08:00

I have a couple buddies who are Flames fans (poor things) and we often spend many hours trash talking hockey over email. 95% of everything we say is junk, "Horcoffs a first line goonie", "Phaneuf gets the sloppy second assist" ect. But the other day, I was presented with the following information. Edmonton Oilers since 2000:

2008-09 - 8th Position (currently)
2007-08 - 9th Position
2006-07 - 12th Position
2005-06 - 8th Position (cup run)
2003-04 - 9th Position
2002-03 - 8th Position
2001-02 - 9th Position

Edmonton's Average Position Last Seven Seasons: 9.00

That my friends is the recipe for mediocrity. You have an ok season, make or barely make the playoffs and you don't get much help back via the draft. Draft position is not the key to organization stability - teams like New Jersey, Detroit, San Jose, Dallas ect. have remained dominant franchises for the past decade without a top end draft pick - but teams like Chicago, Washington and Pittsburgh are proving it to be a recipe for success.

Going back briefly to New Jersey, Detroit, SJ and Dallas I think the Oilers are building properly. They seem to be building from the back-end out. Their top 4 D, is solid. The old saying goes "offense wins games defense wins championships" and it still applies. Detroit, Dallas and New Jersey have always had a strong defense. SJ has never had the dominant defenseman but was 3rd best in GA last season and is again up there this year. I don't think this is a coincidence. While Kevin Lowe has failed in having a balance roster, that is more a reflection of the team not being good. His approach to building a team is solid and with Chris Pronger would have been much easier.

I've said many times that the Oilers are good enough to be a playoff team. With the injury to Visnovsky, that opinion is now in jeopardy. The organization is faced with the question of being sellers or buyers come deadline day. Frankly the only way they lose is by doing nothing.

Arguments for a reload

I dont use the road reload because the Oilers don't need to rebuild - they have a solid core. However, the Oilers are 4 points removed from 14th in the West. 5th last in the league and a shot at Taveres has to be a tempting option. Erik Cole should have good trade value and Staois, Pisani et al would be good salary dumps. Another interesting point is that the Oilers team in 05-06 was much better than 8th (obviously). What did they do before the season? They created about 15 million dollars in cap space. With the global recession and impending decline in NHL salary cap there is going to be a lot of good players available for teams with money. Right now the Oilers have money but no cap space. Reloading is also the best option for trying to find that top-end player to play with Ales Hemsky.

Arguments for a playoff push

This team has 2-3 glaring weaknesses and is otherwise a solid team. A center who can win faceoffs and kill penalties and a scoring forward would help this team immensely. That player IMO doesn't need to be a veteran. Roloson has proven he is a good playoff goaltender and this team still has several key ingredients from the 06 Stanley Cup run who would be hungry and game for the playoffs. The Oilers are well stocked with assets who should have enough cachet to fill the voids that are so frustrating to watch. Another undervalued intangible that comes with the playoffs is that the development Oilers young players with no playoff experience (Gilbert, Smid, Grebeshkov, Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson, Brodziak) would be accelerated.

My guess is that the Oilers make a push this season. There are many people in the organization whose jobs are on the line. If that's the case, I see no reason to wait a month till the deadline.

Hemsky ... wow!

2009-01-21T12:28:00.001-08:00

Ales Hemsky had one of the best single game performances that I can remember by an Oiler last night. 4 world class plays to carry the Oilers to victory.

Sign below if you have a man crush on Hemsky. Don't worry about it, after a game like that its OK.

Clap clap

2009-01-19T21:04:00.000-08:00

If your a diehard Oilers fan you cant have it in you to be pissed off today. Its over +10 in January and the Oilers played one of there most complete games of the season against a very good Phoenix Coyotes team.

For the first time that I can remember the Oilers won a PPV game. Combined with the retro jerseys and Glenn Anderson's retirement all jinxes were broke. The hockey gods were watching the Oilers last night. The 6-3 score really flattered the Coyotes. Most encouraging was the spread out offense lead by the return of Ales Hemsky. Its pretty clear he is the player who makes the top line tick and Penner/Horcoff are both much more effective with Hemmer. Another positive was the play of the 3rd line and the hattrick from Ethan Moreau. I've been hard on him this season. Moreau's game has struggled as has the PK and Moreau hasnt helped the cause by taking far too many bad penalties. But watching that game and the way the team pushed for him to get the hattrick and celebrated when he got it it seems he still has the room. I may be looking too much into it but nonetheless less I will back off from my previous stance.

If you didn't catch the post game interview with Ethan Moreau and Gene Principe its a classic. The Oilers were blasting Private Eyes by Hall and Oates and Ethan took a moment to clap to the song. It was priceless - the boys were really enjoying themselves. The timing of the allstar break is almost a bit unfortunate as the team looks poised like they could make a push up the standings. Of course the Oilers have lacked traction all year so I should be taking the win in stride. Go Oilers!

Oilers trade Garon

2009-01-19T20:49:00.000-08:00

This blog has been quite inactive as I have been pursuing other ventures that I will post about here shortly. I've had posts written and not published about how the Oilers need to land a star then how a player such as Blair Betts would be a good fix for the PK and then how contrary to some opinions (more so in the comments section) landing Vincent Lecavalier would be a good thing. A very good thing. But those are all on the scrap pile. Moving on ...

There aren't many trades in today's NHL so I will have to comment briefly on the Garon trade. Although, most of what I'll say echos what JW predicted and covered excellently at ON. Notice the title is "Oilers trade Garon" not "Oilers acquire X" because Garon is likely the best player involved in the deal. But there is much more to this than dealing Garon. IMO the Oilers have 2 goalies who arent in the long term plans - Roloson because of his age and Garon who has now officially failed in his 4th attempt to become a #1 goaltender. The other guy, JDD, I'd say at best has a chance to become a #1 goaltender. The choice to trade Garon was a good one for one reason - Roli is outplaying Garon this season and by a large margin. The other factor is that the Oilers were starting to get healthy and with the play of Reddox (who I doubt will see another AHL shift) and Brule (who is now waiver eligible) the Oilers needed to clear a roster spot. Its also worth noting that the Oilers want to keep MacIntrye on the roster as the 14th forward. Considering Curtis Sanford cleared waivers, Labarbara was only worth a 7th rounder and Gerber is about to go on waivers, they did quite well on the return. Even if JDD fails as a NHL goaltender the trade is still a win because they had to give him a chance. In addition I think the Oilers are also saving about 500k in salary.

Looking forward, MacT is going to have some interesting decisions to make and I think another trade could be coming. When Pisani and Nilsson return the lineups could be:

27-10-83
12-89-26
18-13-78
85-51-34

67, 46, 43, 25 (as extras?)

Thats not a bad lineup. Lines 2-4 are interchangable but theres too many guys. Nilsson has struggled so far this season and could be trade bait**. Pisani has missed alot of hockey but fills a ton of holes (most notably the PK) and is one of MacT's favorites. But he is an expensive bottom 6 player and he is by no means untouchable. The play of 13 and 78 together has also been encouraging as has 51's play in a defensive role. Theres a log jam here and somethings gonna give. A 3 for 1 trade would be my first choice and the Oilers would have a very good lineup if they could do so. However, looking forward to the offseason with teams like Phoenix losing 30 million dollars this year there are going to be some very good players on the market for teams with money. Without a legitamite shot at the cup the Oilers would do well to unload some salary. All this without mentioning the need to address their goaltending void they need to fill. Again it should be an interesting summer.

** My Christmas list post asked for the real Erik Cole and Sam Gagner and since that day both have been much better. Maybe it was a lucky charm. Could the real Robert Nilsson show up? haha

Edmonton Oilers Wishlist

2008-12-26T12:01:00.000-08:00

For a couple weeks now, I've been wanting to make a positive post about the Oilers but have been stymied by numerous bad games - most notably the 9-2 loss to Chicago. As the numbers suggest the Oilers are actually a much better team than in the previous 2 years and to my eye have improved since the beginning of this season. The Oilers should be a playoff team. They are getting solid goaltending and have 3 quality players to lean on Ales Hemsky, Sheldon Souray and Lubomir Visnovsky. At the level these 3 players are at right now the Oilers field a lineup that can compete. Unfortunately thus far they have been plagued by inconsistency and a horrible penalty kill. A contender they are not but this team is an OK team and with a couple steps in the right direction should see the post season. Here's my 2008 Oilers wish list:

1) The real Eric Cole - We haven't seen this guy play well enough this year but the Eric Cole that played against the Ducks last week was a beauty. At this level he is a difference maker and would give the Oilers some secondary scoring that they desperately lack. Being a contract year, we actually might see it.
2) The real Sam Gagner - It wasn't that long ago comparing Sam Gagner to Patrick Kane was reasonable. After a very strong second half of last year he has tailed off this year. His game is improving but it isn't showing up on the stats sheet (yet). If he could somehow finish the year like he did last year this would be another big benefit to the Oilers chances of making the show.
3) A veteran centre who wins faceoffs and can kill penalties - This player would come at the expense of 78, 12 or 51. The return of Pisani and some improved execution on the PK would yield better results. But Fernando is a couple weeks away. I'm not positive that one player is going to make a difference on the PK otherwise this would be #1 on the wish list.
4) An injury to Ethan Moreau - I think after 2 years, his game has declined significantly and he is taking way too many DUMB penalties for a team that is bottom 3 in the league on the PK. He still plays the pre-lockout game and hasn't adjusted properly. He is also leading as a grind it out type player while the Oilers are better suited playing a Chicago type game. An injury is the only way I see a changing of the leadership and its a dickhead way to say I'd like to see a new leader.
5) A veteran with size - This team is still too soft and going forward I believe the Oilers are going to need to deal at least one of 89, 13, 12 and 88. I'm impartial to who we deal because the return should reflect the value of the player leaving. Although I wouldn't be trading 89 unless the return was incredible.

Merry Christmas Everyone!

Chiming In On The New Lines

2008-12-19T15:01:00.000-08:00

As reported by Jason Gregor on OilersNation, the lineups for tonight's game have been MacBlendered again. After the last 2 games, I'd say change is necessary but the combinations don't jive for me. Here are the lines:

Nilsson - Cogliano - Hemsky
Pouliot - Horcoff - Cole
Moreau - Gagner - Penner
Strudwick - Brodziak - Stortini

I am skeptical for splitting up 27-10-83 but the Oilers desperately need offense from more than one line so I'll buy it - at least for a game or 2. I also don't like moving Penner off the LW where he has been much more successful.

...

Now, halfway through this post, Gregor has just reported a new set of lines that I prefer alot more because Penner is back where he belongs.

Nilsson - Cogliano - Hemsky
Penner - Horcoff - Cole
Moreau - Gagner - Pouliot
Strudwick - Brodziak - Stortini

Observations:

- With all the home games coming up, I like the idea of putting out a line 12-13-83 that should be able to dominate in the soft minutes. Cogliano and Nilsson (in particular) need to get going and no better way then to put them with the only guy on the team that the offense follows.
- 27-10-27 should be able to dominate. If Cole can't get it going on this line, I dont know how he will because he has already proven he cant play LW with Hemsky.
- I dont see the 3rd line working. 2 skill guys with a guy who doesnt do anything but crash and bang anymore. If anything, playing with Morreau should bring some competitiveness to the line. Gagner thinks the game at a high level and this year hasnt shown the same ability. Perhaps playing with Morreau will simplify his game and yeild some offense. I'd still rather see Moreau on the 4th line and either Schremp or Brule given a shot on LW.
- Lowetide posted about how its good for Pouliot to get a shot with some quality linemates. I still see the revised line combination's as a good chance for Pouliot to show himself. Playing with the captain and the future, a couple good showings would really bode well for his future. After being bullish on Pouliot before he shit the bed playing with Morreau and Cole I'm not expecting as much. However, Pouliot has again been better in the last 5 games.

Playing 9 of their next 11 at home is a good time to take advantage of last change. At the same time, its not the time to be wasting games experimenting. The Oilers have fallen a bit behind here and need to capitalize at home in order to have a chance at the dance. Go Oilers!

Return of the suck

2008-12-17T18:07:00.000-08:00

Only the current edition of the Edmonton Oilers could back up their best game of the season with their worst one. In response to last nights performance the Oilers released an apology DVD. Here is the cover.

I didn't watch the game (well I watched from 3-1 to 5-1 and tuned out) so I wont comment. But I don't see why MacT would proclaim the game against Vancouver the best of the season and then change the lineup. I'm also waiting for a momentum building shift from Ethan Morreau who hasn't been a factor enough of late for my liking. Fortunately the Oilers play tonight and have a chance at redemption. Two pissed off teams so it should be a gooder.

Oilers beat Canucks

2008-12-14T09:27:00.000-08:00

I went to the game last night, only my 3rd of the season and it was definitely a good one to go to. 3 for 3 on wins BTW and I wore my tacky xmas sweater, hopefully that doesn’t become a good luck charm.

Last night was possibly the Oilers most complete game of the year! This is also one of the first times I'm posting before reading over all the insightful comments at Lowetide. Here is how I saw it:

- First and foremost I noticed Penner favouring his knee between shifts. I don’t know if this was apparent on TV but it’s concerning given how well the first line is playing. Penner played great and won battles all night which IMO is the most important factor for Dustin being effective.
- It was a good call putting Strudwick and Stortini on the 4th line. Vancouver wanted to play nasty and when they spend the penalty minutes on those 2 guys it’s a bonus for the rest of the team. Stortini also makes the Canucks defenders be more aware of who is on the ice.
- The entire defence played well. Gilbert is starting to get it done against opponents #1 line. That is very encouraging for the Oilers prospect this season. Visnovsky played well again. He is fun to watch, the way he cheats to where the puck is going without getting caught is awesome. Smid also was effective, made good pinches and was physical all night.
- The guy who gave Hemsky the #1 star was watching a different game. He fought the puck all night especially on the PP early. However, he scored the most important goal of the game. His is improving each game this year and is still a beauty to watch even on an off night.
- Robert Nilsson looked like Pavel Bure cheating that far up on the 3rd goal. He was lucky to get the puck cause if the Canuck defender keeps the puck in, Nilsson goes in MacT`s doghouse. Good instincts when you make the right play, lazy hockey when it goes bad. So... good instincts!
- Roli made several saves on quality chances in the 3rd. He would have been my #1 star.
- Cole is actually a bit of a prick. I hadn’t noticed that much but it’s an element the Oilers lack in - especially playing a team like the Canucks.
- Sam Gagner is struggling badly right now. He is fighting the puck and not making any plays. The Oilers as a team are playing their best hockey right now and I don’t think you should change it. But if he doesn’t bounce-back soon the Oilers are going to have to quit giving him minutes. He is the future and forcing him to play like a 4th liner seems counter-productive to his development. Patience is the key but being patient is only easy if the team is winning.

The only real difference between Thursday night vs Florida and last night is execution on offense. Their game is at a high level and I`m hoping they can convert that into a good run at home. With Chicago and a pissed off Canucks team coming up, it’s not gonna be easy. Go Oilers!

And we're happy again

2008-12-08T14:24:00.000-08:00

Ok the title is a bit sarcastic but its amazing how things change so fast. I haven't heard anyone campaigning to fire MacT in about 3 days now. In fact, after proving everyone wrong putting Kyle Brodziak on in the OT powerplay, MacT has (IMO deservedly) muzzled the critics. About 10 days ago, I posted on how the Oilers were to shambles. I would be remise not to acknowledge that the Oilers have noticeably turned it around. Whats interesting is the factor I mentioned as the number one contributor to the struggles (the extra pressure on the team - particularly Nilsson and Gagner) hasnt actually been fixed. Due to injuries, its the play of the callups and the improved play of the #1 line that has calmed the storm. So kudos to MacT, Penner and Horcoff for recent strong performances as well as Hemsky (as always) and the callups Schremp and Brule. Reddox I'm still not convinced of yet but our PK has been better of late.

Looking back to some of my opinions at the beginning of the year, I believed that if the Oilers were to make the playoffs they would need to have a strong home record and a top 10 powerplay. With a healthy Souray and Visnovsky I was actually hoping top 5. The PP is looking much better with Penner on the #1 unit. Penners PP numbers are outstanding and if he is kept there I'd assume the Oilers PP numbers get better. As for the home record, its not strong but its a small sample set - the Oilers schedule has been horrendous so far. But the Oilers survived reasonably well and are in position to take advantage of an easier schedule. Looking forward, my guess is that the Oilers are going to be at least 8 games over 500 to make the playoffs (assuming 500 road hockey from here on in).

Games thus far: 26 games, 28 points
Games remaining:
Road 10-10-3 = 23 points
Home 19-11-3 = 41 points

92 points is about the minimum number to get in. As long as I can remember being an Oiler fan, they haven't been a team that has been able to capitalize on a stretch of games where you expect them to succeed. Right when you think the Oilers have turned a corner they have stumbled. Is this the year things change? One can only hope...

Would ya? TSN is reporting that Chris Gratton has been placed on waivers. At the beginning of the season, I thought he'd be the perfect fit for our 4th line adding an element of toughness sorely needed. This year his numbers are struggling. His GFON/60 (1.24) is about half his GAON/60 (2.47) which is a concern (source behindthenet). But as Jonathan Willis points out he is been given hard minutes and often starts in his own zone (beat me to it again!). Gratton also performs well on the PK - an area of need for the Oilers. Worth a risk? At 1.25 million I dont see a huge risk. We've all seen how Sergei Samsonov can play on a contract year ;)

Analyze your blog

2008-12-04T15:04:00.000-08:00

I found this site which analyzes your blog and makes guesses about the bloggers personality. I figured others out there might find it interesting. Here is my results:

ISTP - The Mechanics

The independent and problem-solving type. They are especially attuned to the demands of the moment are masters of responding to challenges that arise spontaneously. They generally prefer to think things out for themselves and often avoid inter-personal conflicts.

The Mechanics enjoy working together with other independent and highly skilled people and often like seek fun and action both in their work and personal life. They enjoy adventure and risk such as in driving race cars or working as policemen and firefighters.

Measuring unappreciated offensive contributions

2008-12-02T11:56:00.000-08:00

I've been reading alot of David Staples work of late. He got some good stuff that is out of the box type thinking which I like. He had a post today about how Dustin Penner and Erik Cole contribute to alot of goals but dont get as much credit (points). On top of Davids analysis it got me wondering how to measure this. After some thought, I came to the idea that measuring GFON/60 - PTS/60 would be a good indicator. Thanks again to Gabe Desjardins for his excellent work. Here are the Oilers results:

NAME	POS	GP	GFON/60 - PTS/60	GOALS/60	PTS/60	GFON/60
TOMGILBERT	D	22	1.76	0.18	0.35	0.53	1.05	2.81
DUSTINPENNER	LW	20	1.69	0.97	0.72	0	1.69	3.38
LUBOMIRVISNOVSKY	D	22	1.55	0.15	0.15	0.15	0.46	2.01
STEVESTAIOS	D	20	1.49	0.21	0.21	0	0.42	1.91
SHAWNHORCOFF	LW	22	1.42	0.61	0	0.41	1.02	2.44
FERNANDOPISANI	RW	15	1.33	0.66	0.33	0.33	1.32	2.65
SAMGAGNER	C	21	1.31	0	0.66	0	0.66	1.97
LIAMREDDOX	LW	7	1.11	1.1	0	0	1.1	2.21
SHELDONSOURAY	D	21	1.09	0.36	0.91	0.18	1.45	2.54
DENISGREBESHKOV	D	19	1.06	0.21	0.21	0.42	0.84	1.9
ROBERTNILSSON	RW	22	0.92	0.23	0.46	0	0.69	1.61
ERIKCOLE	RW	22	0.86	0.22	0	0.43	0.65	1.51
ETHANMOREAU	LW	22	0.63	0.84	0.63	0.63	2.11	2.74
JASONSTRUDWICK	D	19	0.51	0	0.25	0.51	0.76	1.27
ALESHEMSKY	RW	22	0.39	0.99	0.6	0.6	2.19	2.58
KYLEBRODZIAK	C	20	0.31	0.94	0	0	0.94	1.25
MARC-ANTOINEPOULIOT	C	22	0.28	0.28	0.84	0	1.12	1.4
ANDREWCOGLIANO	C	22	0.25	0.73	0.24	0.73	1.71	1.96
LADISLAVSMID	D	10	0	0	0.53	0.53	1.06	1.06
TIMSESTITO	LW	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
STEVEMACINTYRE	LW	10	0	0	0	0	0	0
JESSEBOULERICE	RW	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
ZACHERYSTORTINI	RW	12	0	0	0	0	0	0
THEOPECKHAM	D	1	0	0	0	0	0	0

My first observation (which came after looking at the data but should have been obvious beforehad) is that, by this metric, defenders score better than forwards. The second was that Staples was right about Dustin Penner whereas Erik Cole didnt rank as well. Cole seems to directly contribute offense and thats about it. Then I looked at the top 20 forwards in the NHL. I eliminated defenders (about 90% of the top 200 players by this metric were defenders) and players who either

a) Hadnt played more than 10 games
b) Dont play more than 10 minutes/game

Not surprisingly was Dustin Penner at 13th overall.

NAME	GFON/60 - PTS/60	POS	TEAM	GP	TOI/60	PTS/60	GFON/60
MIKERICHARDS	2.37	C	PHI	21	14.5	1.77	4.14
DANHINOTE	2.15	RW	STL	10	8.39	0	2.15
BLAKEWHEELER	2.05	RW	BOS	24	10.96	2.51	4.56
PATRICKO'SULLIVAN	1.92	RW	L.A	22	12.81	2.13	4.05
STEVENREINPRECHT	1.85	C	PHX	20	11.35	1.85	3.7
BRYANLITTLE	1.84	C	ATL	23	12.76	2.66	4.5
ERICSTAAL	1.82	C	CAR	24	15.13	1.49	3.31
TOMASHOLMSTROM	1.79	LW	DET	17	11.83	2.09	3.88
TOBYPETERSEN	1.79	C	DAL	21	7.99	1.07	2.86
PATRICHORNQVIST	1.77	LW	NSH	15	11.28	2.13	3.9
DEANMCAMMOND	1.73	LW	OTT	20	6.92	0.87	2.6
DUSTINPENNER	1.69	LW	EDM	20	12.42	1.69	3.38
JONSIM	1.69	LW	NYI	24	10.39	0.96	2.65
RICHARDPARK	1.68	C	NYI	24	11.84	1.06	2.74
MASONRAYMOND	1.65	LW	VAN	25	11.63	1.24	2.89
STEPHENWEISS	1.64	C	FLA	19	13.43	2.59	4.23
PETRSYKORA	1.62	RW	PIT	20	11.09	1.62	3.24
PETRSYKORA	1.62	RW	PIT	20	11.09	1.62	3.24
ALEXEIPONIKAROVSKY	1.6	LW	TOR	24	12.49	2.2	3.8

This metric obviously isnt a strong indicator of player performance. The only thing better than contributing to offense is by directly contributing (scoring then first assist then second assist ect) to the goal. But Dustin does contribute to offense that he doesn't get credit for. Another thing to consider is the Oilers lack of offense so if you scaled this metric by goal scoring per team Penner would probably rank higher.

If anyone wants current Behind the Net 5 on 5 data. I shared the spreadsheet I pulled the data into here.

Crazy Town

2008-11-28T10:01:00.000-08:00

I wrote just recently about how the Oilers were approaching random. Now it seems they're approaching rock bottom and Oilerville is in chaos. A core of fans frustrated with their team (ie Staples and OilersNation). Now there appears to be players who think changing the coach might be the kind of change the Oilers need (Sportsnet, MC79hocky and Lowetide*).

Not good no matter how you spin it. Getting out chanced by the LA Kings - a team who played the night before - by a 2 to 1 margin at home is brutal. No one on the Oilers is creating offense unless Ales Hemsky is on the ice. Three lines are having yard sales in their own end of the ice and the team is seemingly getting worse. The goaltending has been good, the defense has been fine but the offense has been almost non-existent. MacT has taken some serious heat of late and lots of it is justified - coming from a MacBooster. The PK and PP need to be better and IMO that is coachable. The PP being a perpetual sore spot for the Oilers under MacT's leadership.

Last year MacT had no problems coaching these skilled players. This year, Nilsson and Gagner in particular, look lost on the ice and completely lack confidence. IMO, however, the lack of confidence is a side-effect of not winning. So then, what changed?

1) The return of the veterans Horcoff, Sourray, Moreau

Without knowing the locker room that well, this one is possibly a big one. When Horcoff and Sourray left the Oilers they were hovering near a lottery pick and it was the kids who carried the load to a near playoff finish. I'm not saying but its possible that the veterans coming back and trying to run the show after the success the Oilers had last season could have rubbed some players the wrong way. For years the Oilers have been a grind it out type team and since 2007 have transitioned (rather quickly) into a smaller skilled team. I follow the Canucks and Flames closely being rivals in the NW and have read/heard that in Vancouver the departure of Linden, Naslund and Morrison has allowed the younger leaders to emerge (those pricks Kesler and Borrows to name a few). A captain should reflect the type of game a team is going to play. Looking at Calgary you see a hard working team led by the best power forward in the game - Jarome Iginla. Getting a grinder (Moreau) to lead a now skilled team might be two ships heading the wrong direction - or a tug-a-war awaiting a victor. I may be being hard on Moreau here because his game has been great and if anything the Oilers need more competitiveness and grit but results speak.

2) The additions of Cole and Visnovsky.

Cole has struggled, Visnovsky has been great. These guys are new guys and I dont see their impact being huge. Cole from what I've read is a character guy but he's obviously frustrated so I don't know how he is dealing with it. I'll reserve judgement.

3) No Curtis Glenncross

Seeing his success in Calgary is the answer to some of our question that GX is not Scott Fraser. The Oilers IMO chose Moreau and Nilsson over Glencross and that still might be a good bet but the elements he brings are sorely missed (not to mention his 14 pts).

4) Adversity and pressure

The kids never faced any of this last season and its a learning experience for them. Last years success was surprising and the fans rode it but it hasnt followed them around so far this year. Bruce wrote and interesting post on the '80-81 Oilers and their struggles as a young team. Obviously Gagner isnt Gretzky but the comparison is a good one. If MacT goes, he is a victim of a similar scenario (or maybe its just time).

Of the factors, I think #4 has the biggest impact followed by #1. The Oilers are finding their identity. I personally think that Gagner, Cogliano and Nilsson are going to need to get their games back in a hurry. The alternative to them is scraping the league for grinders and IMO regressing from last years success. But its about winning games right now - the coaches job is dependent on it.

* Seriously Lowetide, 300 comments overnight! That's too much, get a comment rating system or something.

Edmonton Oilers Q1 Report

2008-11-21T17:08:00.000-08:00

I figured it would be good to have a Q1 ranking for the Oilers so I can track players over the year. These rankings are heavily based on expectations and the grouping of players is more important than the actual rankings. I grew up on percentages, I dont really even know the difference between a C and a D.

A

Sheldon Souray - Outstanding so far and healthy. Has been a physical presence and one of the best Oilers players so far this season. He is also healthy which will need to stay for Souray to keep his ranking. Often shoots into blocks on the PP but the Oilers don't have enough shoot first players and Sourray is earning his cheque so far this year.
Dwayne Roloson - I wrote Roli off before the year but Roli has proven to be competitive and capable. Has basically earned the starters job and given the Oilers solid goaltending night in and out.

B+

Steve MacIntyre - For a guy playing 3-4 minutes per game, he's done his role well. Able to make game changing hits and willing to stick up for his team.
Ales Hemsky - At 21 points in 20 games playing hard minutes Ales should have an A. If not for 6 games to start the season, he'd definately get one.
Dennis Grebeshkov - Struggled with Gilbert early but as David Staples points out, he wasn't at fault for many of them. I am bullish on Grebeshkov and wishing he was locked in longer.
Ethan Moreau - Led the Oilers well on the road trip earning #1 line role. Has struggled on the top line and takes too many penalties but Moreau after not playing for 2 years deserves kudos for his first quarter.
JDD - Played excellent when called upon. If not for the logjam in goal he'd get more starts.

B

Lubomir Visnosky - Not many of us thought Lubo was capable of playing hard minutes but he is doing it and surviving. His PP chemistry isnt there yet but looking forward to seeing him play with 37.
Mark Pouliot - After another poor season he has emerged as an NHL player IMO. He also seems to have chemistry with most players and is smart (but needs more jam). I'd like to see him get an extended shot between 18 and 26.

B-

Fernando Pisani - Hard to blame him for the injuries or for playing out of position every game. Still does a lot right and is a valuable player.
Ladislav Smid - I actually liked his game before he got hurt. Hasn't emerged as a player yet and while other young defenders are emerging, the game still looks like a challenge for Ladi.

C

Shawn Horcoff - Struggled for a good chunk of the first 20 games and if he wasn't playing with the man Ales Hemsky his point totals would be much lower. Playing the tough minutes isnt an excuse anymore when your making 5.5. At the same time, he is incredibly valuable to the Oilers. The C ranking is possibly a reflection of a unlucky shooting streak.
Tom Gilbert - Struggled bad early. Would be a D ranking but came on in the last half dozen games.
Robert Nilsson - Inconsistency is hurting his game because at times he looks brilliant. Needs to produce more and be careful. He is likely the most tradable Oiler.
Andrew Cogliano - Coming on nicely over the past while but part of the kids problems early.
Erik Cole - Didnt mesh with Hemsky but not many players do. Doesn't think the game well but can skate, hit and generate chances on his own. If he could duplicate his games vs Canucks and Flames I'd be really happy with his game.
Jason Strudwick - Proved very useful early but started making errors and giveaways of late. His expectations for me arent high and the C ranking I suppose doesnt really reflect that.
Mattieu Garon - .888 SP isnt good enough period. Was amazing early but didnt keep his job. Was given the starting job on a platter and couldnt keep it. Could easily be a D.

D

Dustin Penner - Such a frustrating player. If he could duplicate his efforts against CBJ then we'd all be thrilled with the OS. More PP and time is 10-83 should mask his inconsistency but like MacT, I'd like to see more return for a 12th overall pick and 4.25 million per.
Sam Gagner - Proving how hard the NHL actually is. Thinks the game well and has been given preferential treatment from the Oilers. I expect he'll recover during the season. He's just too smart.
Zach Stortini - Lost his job to MacIntrye and thats the #1 reason for the ranking. Has played the agitator role effectively at times however.
Kyle Brodziak - Perhaps playing between 46 and 33 softened his game but he hasnt brought much jam. He also only has 3 points and isn't doing much on the PK. There isn't much separating him from Reddox anymore but I think he'll bounce back.
Steve Staois - Steady Steve's game is starting to decline. He looked bad early last season but came on so I'm confident he'll recover. To many giveaways and inability to make a breakout pass is another weakness in his game.

Overall, the Oilers first quarter has been a struggle. Their record is probably flattering given the quality of game they deliver night in and night out. Personally I'm still optimistic that most of the players on the team will respond. There is a lot of skill on this team and its still early. Far too much of the offense is generated by Ales Hemsky and Sheldon Souray. The biggest room for improvement needs to come from the kids and the PK. The PK might require a mercenary.

Approaching random

2008-11-19T14:09:00.000-08:00

Life isnt easy as an Oilers fan so far this season. The highs and the lows are quite extreme and change without notice. I have been away from the Oilogosphere for a good chunk of time in November attending a friends wedding in Cancun but as an Oil-junkie I typically check the scores and skim over the piles of good comments at Lowetide's site. Several times I've had to scratch my head and wonder wtf is going on.

Oilers (5) Flyers (4) - I watched this game, dominating performance by the Oilers. Reason to be excited.
Oilers (4) Blue Jackets (5) - Tanked the third period in a game they didn't really deserve to be leading. Reason to be concerned.
Oilers (4) Penguins (5) - Oilers didn't show up for the first period and got blown away despite a late comeback. Reason to be concerned.
Oilers (2) Devils (1), Oilers (3) Rangers (2) - Didn't check the internet for a couple days and came back pumped. I was expecting 2 losses and 2 wins. Reason to be excited.
Maple Leafs (5) Oilers (2) - I watched this game in a sports pub in Cancun. It was packed and fun. First period Oilers dominate. Reason to be excited. After not getting enough goals for their chances game falls off in the 3rd. Reason to be concerned.
Avalanche (3) Oilers (2) SO
Oilers (0) Red Wings (4) - I don't get upset when the Oilers lose to Detroit. They are a better team and I expect as much. Still 0 goals for and reason to be concerned.
Oilers (7) Blue Jackets (2) - Penner and Horcoff lead the Oilers (finally). Reason to be excited.

So anyways, quite a month the Oilers have had thus far. To be 9-8-2 with 14 road games is nothing to brag about but reasonable. I think the most frustrating part for Oilers fans (and coaches) is the inconsistency and frequency of momentum swings. The Oilers season so far is reminding me of the Eskimos season that just ended. A team that started off strong and seemed to be better than their record showed but each time they had a chance to turn the corner, they'd stumble. I remember being at the Labour Day game in Calgary coming back home thinking the Esks were a good team only to see them come out lame and blow it. The Esks also did this winning in BC and losing back at home. Similarly, the Oilers seemed to be on a role heading into Columbus before blowing the 3rd period lead then the big one for me was losing to the Leafs. If the Oilers are going to be anything more than a marginal team, they are going to need to string together some confidence building wins.

There have also been some interesting discussions on Lowetide's site as well as a good call from MC79. I'll chime in briefly on the issues because I am too late to do so.

On Penner:

This guy has a good top 6 game but doesnt bring it enough. My opinion is that the Oilers tried motivating him but he didn't respond so they tried going public. I don't like the public bashing but MacT was right in what he said and it worked. Penner getting pushed off the puck by Steen vs the powerhouse against CBJ last night are like complete opposite. I'd like to see Penner on the #1 PP unit more and if he keeps showing up lame again, bench him. Hopefully he'll learn. Raffi Torres didn't.

On Garon:

IMO the Oilers don't see Garon as a goalie capable of taking them to the next level. Garon started off like gangbusters but since then has struggled especially in games vs the Penguins and the Canucks. The longer Roli plays well, the better the chances Garon gets traded. Garon is a good goaltender though and I think once he comes back he'll have a chip on his shoulder.

On MacT:

Lowetide seems to think MacT is on the way out the door. I have no idea if this is the case but there is the possibility that MacT is losing the room. Look at the consistency I have highlighted in the past month. Something isnt jiving right now. MacT may not be completely at fault on this though because he has to rely on inconsistent players Penner, Nilsson and Hemsky. I think MacT is a great coach especially in the playoffs so losing him would be a shame. He sticks with Roloson (probably too much) but has been right on many of his decisions. As mentioned before, the Oilers (and MacT) need a string of wins here soon.

One final note: After playing in over 25% of their games in SO last season, the Oilers don't seem to be playing many this year. Is this the Garon factor?

Around the league

2008-10-29T08:15:00.000-07:00

One of the teams I'm going to be following this season is the New York Rangers. They are off to the races with an great start but people are already predicting cap jail for the Rangers next season (although saying Dubinsky is better than Stasny is crazy talk). From the article,

Boy, would that be a problem for the Rangers, who have $39.159 million committed to one goaltender, four defensemen, two centers and one winger - Henrik Lundqvist; Wade Redden, Michal Rozsival, Dan Girardi, Marc Staal; Scott Gomez, Chris Drury; Markus Naslund - for next season, when the cap is more likely to decline somewhat rather than increase from the current $56.7M.

The Rangers also have to resign Dubinsky, Zherdev and Callahan. With the cap at 56 million dollars and likely to decline due to the Canadian dollar, the Rangers look to be in cap trouble.

This year I joined a competitive keeper league. The entry fee is steep ($250) and with 25 picks and 10 guys in the draft the pickings are slim late in the draft. Another rule was that you had to have 4 rookies (or would be rookies). One of the picks I made was taking Luca Sbisa. My logic: Take the first rounder from 2008 from the team that I consider to have the best scouting staff. The Philedalphia Flyers. At the time I didnt even think Sbisa would play a game in the NHL. Last night, he played 5th most minutes on the Flyers and got 2 powerplay assists. As the 4th youngest player in the league, this pick is looking like a lucky one early. I'll be watching this guy on Sunday when the Oilers play Philly. For those of us hoping Ladi Smid turns it around, this guy is making it look easy thus far.

Its about the hockey

2008-10-21T10:01:00.000-07:00

We wait all summer for hockey, the Oilers start 4 and 0 and all we can talk about is this?

If a guy gets a press pass and ****s up then its his loss. Were they harsh? Sure. But there are 250 other bloggers out there providing tons of info who would love a press pass. Shutting the door is a cop out but the Oilers dont understand the web and dont know how to address the ever growing Oilogosphere. Oilers, if you need someone I know a guy ;)

The kids got conned into a deal, who cares. At the same time, I have a Gagner rookie jersey that I'd gladly pay $25 to get signed.

Enough is enough. The Oilers are 4-0. Go Oil!

1 and 0 but causes for concern

2008-10-13T09:25:00.000-07:00

Finally a real NHL game last night! I was at the game and the Oilers somehow pulled it off - winning the game despite being outplayed. Here are some of my observations:

Penner - I was only able to watch a couple of preseason games but Penner was playing in both. In both of those games as well as tonight he looked faster. In my season predictions post (that is still on my desktop so now lacks credibility) I made this prediction for Penner - "This is Penner's year. I've seen this guy play a couple times in preseason and he looked good. Scores 35 goals and 20 assists in his coming out year." Penner was likely the best Oilers player.

Kid Line - Didn't do much but got a lot of respect due to their counter attack. I am concerned about their lack of size as a line and the number of turnovers they gave up. Away from Rexall it will be interesting to see if this line stays together. Surprising that they got 8 of the Oilers shots. They dont seem to take too many low percentage shots.

Cole - Looked lost out there. I've read that he commented that he is learning a new system and that playing in Carolina was much more north/south. I've seen several players fail playing with Hemsky (Torres, Lupul to name a few). He isn't easy to play with and I the sooner they put Penner with 10-83 and put Cole with 34 and someone else better. Although the 18-34-27 line did generate the offense so that won't happen for a while.

Horcoff - Played well but got dominated on the FO. Was he getting the "easy minutes on the dot" before?

Hemsky - Lost. He is a slow starter every year and didn't look good last night.

Souray - From what I saw, he was our best defender.

Lubo - High risk but didn't scare me as much as he scared others.

Grebs/Gilbert - Started off horribly but I thought had a good 3rd period. Grebs in particular looked like the early last season Grebeshkov but came on in the 3rd. Hopefully that trend continues.

Strudwick - I liked him a lot. He and Souray were both physical and effective. With my lack of confidence in Staios/Smid and my comfort level with Staios/Strudwick, that to me says the gap between Smid and Strudwick is actually pretty high. I'm still a believer in Smid but winning hockey games is #1 and I don't see Smid getting many minutes barring injuries.

Garon - played well but a little bit lucky perhaps. Colorado hit several posts.

It's early and it's a win so I wont be overly critical but the shot clock was a concern. Moreau said in a post-game interview that "you don't win games on the shot clock" and that's true. I think the Oilers will be over 500 getting out-shot most games (because they can't win a draw). The kid line looked too creative. With the success of the Penner line, I wonder how long before we see
12-10-83
26-13-89
18-34-27
78-51-46
Nilsson is one of the few Oilers who can skate and pass with Hemsky. The Euro brand of hockey is different from the North American game and Hemsky thinks a Euro game. His chemistry with Sykora is the best example I can think of. Is it worth a shot? Plus the kid line could also use some KISS influence Cole would bring. First game is a win so that's good. But there is work to do.

Go time?

2008-10-04T21:43:00.000-07:00

Since the end of last season I have been riding the Oilers roller coaster in terms of my opinion of the Oilers and good they will be this upcoming season. They are a team that showed a ton of promise with good skill and a couple question marks. Those being:

1) A lack of a true shutdown defender - This team needs a mean shutdown defender like Adam Foote or Robin Rhegher
2) Lack of a depth shutdown centre - I like Shawn Horcoff against almost anyone and the Oilers forward lineup is skilled but after Horcoff it is lacking down the middle defensively
3) Lack of an enforcer - Which could be crossed off the list with 45 games from MacIntyre
4) Goaltending - After watching JDD a couple times this pre-season I'd say the Oilers have 3 capable goalies. Unfortunately, the starter Garon is unproven and could be the 20th best in the league (in other words there is room for an upgrade).

On the other side, the Oilers have several young skilled players who should only get better this season (including but not limited to Gagner, Cogliano, Gilbert, Brodziak, Grebeshkov, Nilsson) and there are plenty of positives to focus on.

As a result of the debate with how good the team is comes the debate of what direction the Oilers will head this year. Will they be the Montreal Canadians, who added Tanguay, Lang and Laraque this offseason and seem primed for a cup run. Or will they follow the Chicago model, trading a player like Lang for a pick to allow young talent to develop. Looking at the Oilers lineup its tough to predict what direction the Oilers will go. If they add players and make a run at it, why not, injuries can happen so there may be no time like the present. 2005-2006 run was one of the best times I've had as a fan. Also, a decent run would accelerate the development of the kids. Like they had in 2005-2006 the Oilers have a couple players who are tradeable but might still have some cache around the league (IMO Salmelainen=Schremp) as well as a fairly deep organization. Trading a player or pick for Peca near the deadline would not only improve the Oilers but its also reasonable given Columbus' position and relations with the Oilers. If they dont make a push for it, it really makes me wonder whether or not its time to move Staois and Moreau. These guys are different from Robert Lang because they are excellent leaders and if anything else have a work ethic that should wear off on the kids. But at the same time, they are closer to Kelly Buchberger than they are Mark Messier. They arent players who can play hard minutes and shelter a younger players development. I also havent liked what I've seen from either player but I'm not overly concerned - its preseason. My concern is the Oilers could be 2 years away and are we taking away from the development of other players. An argument could be made that Oilers lost Glencross over Moreau. Which is ok, as long as your planning on building for the short term. A team serious about a run cannot get enough role players like Moreau or Staois. These players win championships. The additions of Cole and Visnovsky cause me to think the Oilers indeed think its time to make progress - time to trade prospects for players. After collecting picks and prospects for 3 years, the Oilers are IMO primed to make a couple such moves. With several teams still over the cap, the timing could be sooner than later.

Oilers Rookies vs Golden Bears

2008-09-17T08:53:00.001-07:00

I got to see my first game of hockey in a couple months. It was glorious to finally watch a game again but I did miss the shootout that they've had during intermissions in previous years. The Lerg, Chornet and Eberle line were the best all night. They were a threat and I really only got excited when they were on the ice. Here is my summary:

Lerg - Stauffer gave him the #1 star deservedly so. Him and Eberle had good chemistry.

Eberle - Found ways to get open in the slot several times. Unlucky not to score let alone get a couple. He played wing but often drifted out of position to centre. Appears to think the game very well and will IMO be an NHL player sooner than later.

Chornet - I liked his game but maybe it was because he was playing on the dominant line. He could pass with his linemates and the play didnt die on him often.

Hunt - Wore #74 and reminded me a ton of Fleury. Beaked at everyone on the Bears and hit everyone. Loved watching his passion.

Maslonka - Scored with a bomb of a shot. Made a couple bonehead pinches that caused 2 on 1s.

Chorney - He was solid defensively and didnt do much offensively outside the breakaway. Didnt really look like an offensive defensemen, perhaps more of the Grebeshkov mold.

Plant - He has size and uses it fairly effectively in the corners. Other than that, wasnt really flashy but I dont know if he ever will be. I wasnt disappointed or excited about his game.

Wild - I liked him on the PP. Often took wrist shots that

Chwedoruk - Another smallish guy with great passion. I remember him getting high sticked then backchecking and diving at a guy to make a play then finishing his shift working his balls off in the D zone.

Pauvovich - Perhaps one of the guys I was most pleasantly surprised with.

Pisano - Couple punishing hits.

Omarra - the guy cant pass. He was definately minus on the night plus he took a hooking penalty. When he kept the game simple and hit he was ok but he has a lot of improvement to make.

Pitton/Perugini - both did well making some great saves. Oilers got outshot but had better goaltenders.

PS The pics are from my iPhone which apparantly cant take pictures.

Gilbert vs Ballard

2008-09-10T08:06:00.001-07:00

I found the announcement of Keith Ballard's new contract to be quite interesting yesterday because it was very similar to Tom Gilberts new contract. Gilbert got 24/6 and Ballard got 25.2/6. Both contracts are 6 years with Ballard getting slightly more money. Ballard and Gilbert are different players but whats interesting is that back in 2003-2004, the Oilers had a choice of Gilbert or Ballard for Tommy Salo. The Oilers wanted a puck mover and chose Gilbert over Ballard (see Mathesons take on the decision).

It wasnt until recently that the decision to take Gilbert over Ballard look like a good move. In the new NHL the value of puck movers increased significantly and while Ballard may still be a better player, Gilbert is making a very good case for himself. One thing about the stats is they dont tell who will be a better player they really can only tell you who has been a better player thus far. I decided to take a look at the numbers. Breakdown can be found here and I have a summary below (blogger sucks for charts, its soon time for wp or drupal).

Some interesting notes:

1) Gilbert actually did better on the PK that Ballard. Surprising but the Oilers did have a better PK so that helps Gilbert's numbers a bit.
2) Ballard had a better PP +/- ON/60 but had under a minute TOI/60. He hardly played on the PP and I dont think he'd maintain those numbers.
3) Ballard played with better players against tougher competition but was an outscorer. This number here is the big difference between the two. Ballard played against top competition and came out ahead.
4) Not shown in the graphs but Gilbert played about a minute more per game. Gilberts TOI near the end of the season was quite high.

I'm a Gilbert fan. Given his massive improvements in his game, the type of game that allows for improvement with experience (thinking mans game) and how the Oilers brass raves about Gilberts work ethic, I think the Gilbert will improve enough to make the call look like the right one. As of now, Ballard is the better player IMO. The Oilers really need a shutdown D and the debate is close. So Oilers fans, who would you take now? Ballard or Gilbert? Either one for Salo is robbery.

Look at me now

2008-08-05T15:36:00.000-07:00

Today Lowetide illustrated out how good the Oilers scouting department has done since 2001 - the draft year of Ales Hemsky. While the 6 year window from 2001 to 2007 had its blemishes (ie Niinimaki and Pouliot) it was full of good picks. The point LT made isnt really news to me but it got me thinking once again about the Dustin Penner offer sheet. I've always struggled with assessing the value of the 12th overall pick the Oilers gave up to get Penner (acknowledging that, without Penner, it also would have been much better). Would it be closer to Hemsky or Niinimaki? Would it be better than Penner and in how many years? Either way, I doubt that the Penner move will ever look great for the Oilers. At best it probably looks like an OK move because it will be hard to cover both the salary and picks. In the past, I've defended the move as "ok or not being horrible" by applying the following context to the trade.

At the time of the Penner offer sheet, the Oilers had just traded Pronger and Smyth in "player for assets" moves. The Oilers had too many assets and not enough players and had just struck out on the UFA market. They needed a player like Penner to assist in the development of younger players. I'm of the belief you need to shelter young players as you develop them. The chances of Robert Nilsson succeeding on the first line would have been much less than where he was on the second line behind Dustin Penner. Penner had just played 2nd line LW on a Stanley Cup winner and would definitely have been capable of top 6 on a shallow looking Oilers roster.

When reading the post by LT, I thought of a new context that could be applied to the Penner move. I don’t think there is any chance we'd be throwing around compliments to the procurement department at this time last season.

1) Sam Gagner hadn’t played an NHL game
2) Andrew Cogliano hadn’t played and NHL game
3) Pouliot didn’t really look NHL ready
4) Schremp was looking suspect
5) Dubnyk was looking suspect
6) JDD was looking suspect
7) JFJ had no points in 41 NHL games
8) Many fans were trashing the scouts for not taking Cherpanov and taking Nash.
9) Brodziak looked NHL ready
10) Stortini looked like a bum who wasn’t near being an NHL enforcer

Could the Oilers have possibly valued the picks as highly as they would today? I'd say no. Fast forward a year and

1) Sam Gagner was an NHL top 5 rookie as an 18 year old
2) Andrew Cogliano was a top 10 NHL rookie
3) Pouliot looks ready to make the NHL
4) Schremp was top 10 in the AHL in points, NHL capable and a decent trade asset
5) Dubnyk is still unproven
6) JDD has a bounce-back season a one way contract
7) JFJ still has no points in 41 NHL games
8) Avoiding Cherepanov looks better and Nash looks to be a good pick
9) Brodziak was indeed NHL ready
10) Stortini looks to be effective in the 4th line agitator role and good value at 700k

The point of the post isnt to justify the Penner offer sheet. I don’t think it’s a good long term strategy in today’s NHL. But it’s quite amazing how quickly ones opinion on something can change.

Oilers hire Tambellini

2008-08-01T07:11:00.000-07:00

When I first heard about the hiring of Tambellini as GM of the Oilers I was surprised to hear about it and instantly a couple questions came to mind.

Is Tambellini the replacement of Kevin Lowe or a compliment to Kevin Lowe?

Every quote I find indicates to me that its more of the latter.

Quote from Tambellini (per TSN.ca)
"This is a management team". "We're going to work together as a group. I don't want Kevin Lowe going anywhere. He's one of the reasons that I came here. He'll be involved as much as he wants to be involved and I look forward to that."

Kevin Lowe
"We all like to think that titles are irrelevant," says Lowe. "We want to just get the job done collectively as a team so that the Oilers organization can be successful."

"Steve will end up doing more of the day-to-day stuff of the General Manager's role, which is a lot. That's what was wearing me down personally. The major decisions are going to be made collectively with the management group with me ultimately having the final say."

Based on these quotes, to me Katz wanted to add a top-end NHL mind to the management team and the shuffle of positions was done to allow Tambellini to come on board. To me, KLo still has the power but will be less involved in negotiations and more involved in decisions (with the input of Tambellini and the team). This is Katz' second stamp on the team and a good one. Not that I'm an expert on this but you dont become a billionare by working for yourself. There just isnt enough time. You make decisions (alone or as a group) and have capable people implement them. Running an NHL team is an increasingly harder job each year and a cohesive team is a more effective than one person. A management team can self destruct quite easily but given that KLo and Tambellini have worked together before (as shown in the photo of the 2002 Olympics) the risk of this happening should be minimal. Overall, I see this as a positive.

How good is Tambellini as a GM?

This one will have to be answered over time. My preference was to add Doug Armstrong who had a proven record but he was hired by St Louis months ago and I never considered Tambelli an option. The Canucks have been unable to make the right moves to take the next step as a franchise. Before the lockout, the Canucks were unable to add the pieces to make a push when the had a strong team led by Naslund-Bertuzzi-Morrison. More recently, they've had the best goaltender in the league but been unable field a decent lineup in front of him. Is that a reflection of Tambellini? I dont think you can fairly pinpoint that on him if he isn't the man in charge. I wonder if the name Rich Winter ever entered discussions ...

One of the reasons I started blogging was so that I could help track my opinions and changes in Oilers direction. This is a fairly significant change and it will be interesting to see how it pans out.

Baseball to Hockey, A Natural Progression

2008-07-23T11:47:00.000-07:00

Lowetide just made a post defending the way he frequently compares hockey to baseball. First of all, it’s his blog he shouldn’t have to. His blog is top quality and the first thing I read each morning.

I've been planning a series of posts about where I think the direction the future of hockey statistics is moving but this post sparked a quick blurb here - mostly to avoid putting a 2 page comment on LT's site ;)

In the field of computer modeling, prediction, statistics (artificial intelligence) the typical development in research is to start with smaller easier to solve problems and progress to larger ones. Over the last 20 or so years there has been a progression from checkers to chess to the hottest game in AI - poker. Since 1989 researchers at the University of Alberta worked on playing perfect checkers until last year it was finally solved. Computers are able to beat humans far before achieving perfect play. In chess, a computer can beat the best human players but to my knowledge the game hasn’t been solved. Chess is a harder problem to solve than checkers because there are more possibilities and states. While in poker, pokerbots do incredibly well for themselves but the best human players can still beat the computer. This however wont last long.

I see a lot of parallels between the progression of solving games like checkers, chess and poker to the way that computers will be able to model/simulate baseball games way before being able to accurately do so in hockey games. Similar to checkers and chess, baseball is a game that has a limited set of states. When a player is batting, there is up to 3 runners on base and a limited set up outcomes. You might be able to think of 30 different events that can happen during a batting sequence but it all boils down to a limited set. For example, when a player gets beamed by a ball it’s really the same as getting walked or getting a single with no runners on base. The set of outcomes can be reduced. With hockey, the game is constantly changing, happens at such a fast pace and has tons of factors effecting every decision. In short, simulating a baseball game is much easier than a hockey game. Sports results are also different from other games because in sports, you play a team once (or even a best of seven series) and there is still a lot of variance in the expected outcome. For chess or poker, you can eliminate this by playing thousands or 10s of thousands of games. In hockey, for example, you don’t have the option of playing Sam Gagner on the powerplay 1000 times to see how he'd do. You have to make decisions based on a much smaller set of data.

As Lowetide mentioned, "baseball is wise for hockey fans because it is so much farther ahead in terms of math and math my friends is your friend when it comes to figuring things out". I think he is right and as I've tried to allude to it’s happened for a reason. As technology advances, more and more information will become available. Sites like behindthenet.ca have come up with more (and better) statistics to use when evaluating players that didn’t exist until recently. As more of this information becomes available and evolves analytical hockey fans will come up with much better ways to "suss out Bill James equations".

Keep up the good stuff LT!

Forward flexibility

2008-07-21T13:41:00.000-07:00

I've commented recently that the Oilers are in trouble from an experience perspective if Shawn Horcoff gets hurt. I don't think that point can be disputed. However, its interesting to point out the number of players who can play both centre and wing.

Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky
Cogliano - Gagner - Nilsson
Cole - Brodziak - Pisani
Morreau - Pouliot - Stortini

Horcoff, Cogliano, Gagner, Brodziak and Pouliot are all natural centres who can play wing. Penner is also a winger who has played a bit in the middle. Jason Strudwick and Steve Staois are also both capable playing up front although in Staois' case, I doubt we'll see that happen. Its been several years since "Steady Steve" has played up front. This roster flexibility is something that should work to the Oilers advantage during the season.

The kids are alright

2008-07-21T13:39:00.000-07:00

It dawned on me recently how highly the Oilers staff think of the kids on the team. Looking back at last seasons roster, the lineup that went 18-10 (with Horcoff injured) looked something like this (I'm not too sure where Pouliot played).

Penner - Stoll - Hemsky
Gagner - Cogliano - Nilsson
Pouliot - Reasoner - Pisani
Glencross - Brodziak - Stortini

Gilbert - Grebeshkov
Pitkanen - Staois
Smid - Greene

Gone are Stoll, Reasoner, Glencross, Greene and Pitkanen (and Torres). An argument could be made that each of the players no longer on the roster (with the exception of Glencross) were passed by players with less experience and hopefully better upside. To me thats a strong indication of how the Oilers management feels about the team. My only concern is that the Oilers are too green down the middle. Right now, heading into the season I'd guess our centre's will be Horcoff - Gagner - Brodziak - Pouliot. If Horcoff gets hurt, we're going to need an experienced replacement in a hurry!

Horcoff for another 6

2008-07-21T13:35:00.000-07:00

This is Shawn Horcoff celebrating my favorite goal I've seen him score. The signing of Shawn Horcoff is excellent news. I knew his cap hit would be over 5 million and I'm glad it didn't hit 6 (which he would have cost on the open market).

Its funny, a couple days before the signing I was having a conversation with Jonathan about the last UFA target I'll like to see the Oilers pursue. In our brief discussion I made the comment "I'm not interested in signing anyone left at the expense of Horcoff. But when the Oilers were chasing Hossa, they had Horcoff making calls. I expect he is in the plans." I had no clue it would be this quickly but I'm glad the Oilers got it over with.

Shawn Horcoff is going to be perfect for the development of Sam Gagner. I expect that Horcoff will be the #1 centre for a season or 2 with Gagner getting 1st line PP time much before he ever becomes the #1 centre. In fact, it could be 4 years of Horcoff's contract before Gagner is ready to play PVP. At that time Gagner will still only be 22 years old. A 6 year deal for Horcoff puts no pressure on 89 to develop. I wonder how much better the previous 89 would have become if the Oilers had that luxury back then.

Many others have commented on the contract and the general opinion is positive. There are a few posters out there that seem to think Horcoff isnt a true #1 centre and will thus be overpaid. One poster compared Horcoff to Holik. I could be wrong on this but I believe Holik made 8 million dollars a year and scored 45 points for those seasons. I've compared Horcoff to Brind'amour for a couple years now. The other guy who I've recently started to compare Horcoff to is Henrik Zetterberg. Zetterberg is obviously in a different class but both players are extremely hard workers who are tenacious on the puck. We also aren't too far away removed from Horcoff outscoring Zetterberg in the 2006 opening round. Horcoff's development as a player is also similar to Zetterberg's in the sense that both were good defensive players who learned to adapt their offensive game over time. In a recent post I made, I quoted Babcock about the development of Zetterberg "he has always been a great defensive player but he never shot the puck. Now he shoots the puck more anyone in the league (well not a quite as much as Ovechkin) so he scores all the time". As a player, Horcoff is evolving his game in a similar fashion. In the last couple years, Horcoff has become more effective offensively by learning to shoot the puck more. Mentally that is a tough switch for a player like Horcoff to make and he has benefited from it.

Ok now that I've done the ridiculous and compared Horcoff to Zetterberg let me ask - other than Zetterberg, who is a better 2 way centreman in the league? In other words in a PVP situation, who would you take over Horcoff. My early guesses are Zetterberg (and Datsyuk), Crosby, Mike Richards and Ryan Getzlaf. Crosby is a better player by a large margin but I thought he was worth mentioning because the progression in his game in this years playoffs to becoming a more complete player.

Langkow - nope
Brindamour - not anymore
Koiuvu - I'd take Horcoff
Lehtinen - not anymore
Drury - debatable
Pahlsson - maybe better defensively but Horcoff gets 3x the points

Anyone I am missing? Either way, Shawn Horcoff is a good guy to lock up.

Oilers sign Zach Stortini

2008-07-21T13:31:00.000-07:00

In other news, we landed on the moon ;) I've been meaning to get to this but I've been swamped at work. So here is my thoughts on some old news. This signing isn't a blockbuster move but I for one am glad. He adds grit to the lineup and annoys the piss out of Calgary and Vancouver. Most importantly, he is a team guy who works his bag off. Reminds me of a one of our recently hired coaches - Kelly Buchberger.

Stortini's job is not the easiest one in the NHL. He has to take face washes and cheap shots without retaliating. His job is to get other players to take runs at him. But hey, he plays in the NHL and I'm sure he's thrilled. I don't even really care if he isn't a great fighter because the Oilers are far removed from being an intimidating team.

With the cap going up, 700k for 3 years is very reasonable. Good for Zach and another good contract for KLo/Olczyk. With Zach's work ethic, there is very little chance he wont cover the contract.

Meeting Georges Laraque

2008-07-19T08:09:00.000-07:00

Last night I had the privilege of meeting Georges Laraque. My good buddy Kyle won an autographed Sidney Crosby jersey from the Team 1260 and BG came by and personally delivered it to us (5 hours late ... haha). I bought my friggin signed Crosby jersey on eBay so obviously I got ripped off ;) Kyle and BG were able to compare Memorial Cup rings and talk hockey. It was really cool. Both guys played with Hossa so it was neat.

Highlights (most of which isn't exactly news):

1) Georges talked about how it was Katz who made numerous phone calls trying to get Georges to play here. Oilers offered the same money 1.1/year and a year longer contract. Georges insisted at least 3 times that he wants to finish his career in Edmonton.
2) Georges thinks the Oilers will for sure make the playoffs this year.
3) I asked him how good he thought Montreal would be and if the Oilers had a chance to win the division. His response "Lets be honest guys, Detroit is going to win the cup".
4) He said Hossa wanted to go to Detroit all along.

All in all a cool experience. BG is a class act and a great guy. Spending every Friday night of his summer giving away jerseys and talking to fans is such a generous move. Nicest pro I've ever met. Good luck in Montreal Georges!

How could we? How could we not ...

2008-07-14T14:47:00.000-07:00

All summer there have been 2 players who I was quietly hoping the Oilers would pursue - Sundin and Jagr. These are not the typical big name UFA players who sign highly inflated long term contracts. When the Oilers were offering Hossa 92 million over 9 years (or whatever it was) I cringed at the idea of paying 38 year old Hossa 9 million dollars*. It could not have been good value. Sundin and Jagr would be different because they'd be short term contracts. I think a short term overpayment like Sundin or Jagr would be acceptable because of their impact on the rest of the Oilers roster. I am a believer that the Oilers need a player of Sundin or Jagr's ilk to speed up the development process of the kids. Otherwise we won’t hit that level until Hemsky or Gagner can lead the ship. Looking down the road, a short term deal is also ideal for the Oilers who will need cap space when its time to extend Gagner and Cogliano.

Therefore, it was my opinion that the Oilers were bang on chasing Jagr. It’s a shame he ran off to Russia chasing millions of tax free dollars. But Sundin is still available. How come we haven’t even heard of an attempt to sign him? Was it shunned that severely?

Tyler at mc79hockey.com suggests here and here that Sundin is a very good UFA option who did well with little help and I agree. Yet for some reason, the only team left making noise on the Sundin front is the Canucks. Does that mean he is going to retire? Does he really want to go back to a rebuilding Toronto? I don’t really see Sundin going to Vancouver. Even though they have a lot of Swede's they don’t have the talent up front to attract Sundin - granted, adding Demitra does help.

The Oilers have had a good off-season with the additions of Visnovsky and Cole. IMO they should make the playoffs and could possibly win the division (more so due to the steps back by Minnesota, Calgary and Colorado). Now if you could add Sundin without removing much other than salary (which could almost be done simply by removing Roloson) the Oilers lineup would be stellar. My quick lineup guess would be:

Penner - Sundin - Nilsson
Cole - Horcoff - Hemksy
Cogliano - Gagner - Pouliot
Morreau - Brodziak - Pisani

I put the Swedes together and put Penner on that line because I think Penner could learn a ton from Sundin positionally. Either way you shuffle it that lineup would be grose! We'd have 3 lines that cold play PVP against almost any other line. Adding Sundin would IMO put us in discussions with Detroit, SJ, Dallas and Anaheim as candidates to represent the West.

It may not be realistic to suggest the notion that Sundin would come here but I'd still like to at least hear of an attempt. Agree?

* This ignores the fact that you could front load the contract and make the salary more attractive for a small market team (potentially Edmonton if the dollar tanks again).

The cupboard is full

2008-07-10T11:55:00.000-07:00

As a result of a combination of excellent scouting and a couple quality for quantity moves (Pronger and Smyth), the Oilers depth is at a level I haven’t seen it before. Its interesting that several of their prospects/players who are developing are doing so ad different ages.

- Oilers have guys like Tom Gilbert (2002), Kyle Brodziak (2003) and Robert Nilsson (2003) entering their second NHL seasons who appear to be locks for roster spots in key development years.
- Oilers have guys like MAP (2003) who hasn’t done much at the NHL level yet but seems poised to earn his one way deal.
- On the other end of spectrum there is soon to be 19 year old Sam Gagner (2007) who is entering his second NHL season and could end up a star in the league.

The Oilers also have several decent prospects who potentially could force themselves onto the roster like Gilbert did last year. Peckham, Chorney, Hrabel, Schremp and Brule are candidates this year. The signing of JFJ is an indication the Oilers still have hope in him too. Despite this, even if one of them shoot the lights out, there isnt much room to fit in the roster and the player will end up in the minors anyways.

As a fan I can’t help but be excited because when players (young and younger) develop together the result is almost always positive. Usually when it fails, there is a lack of experience/leadership but I am a believer in the leadership ability of Morreau, Staois and Horcoff. The youngsters also have a skill player in Hemsky to learn from as well. Potentially with this many prospects developing this could be a great season for the Oilers as players grow from each others success.

Lets look at the Oilers current roster. These are my lines.

Nilsson - Horcoff - Hemsky
Penner - Gagner - Cogliano
Cole - Brodziak - Pisani
Morreau - Pouliot - Stortini

13th forward - Reasoner

Extras: Schremp, Brule, Reddox

Gilbert - Grebeshkov
Souray - Visnophsky
Staois - Smid

Extras: Roy, Peckham, Chorney

Right now there are some gaps in the Oilers roster such as more experienced 3rd line centre and a shutdown D. As Jonathan points out here , here and here Marek Malik is a good shutdown option but other than that there aren’t any many UFA options that are guaranteed upgrades.

That leaves the trade option. I'd love to get a guy like Regher out of Calgary who is desperate for forwards (that will never happen by the way so please ignore me even mentioning it). The question then is who would we move? We've already gotten rid of the expendable assets in Piktanen, Green, Stoll and Torres. I don’t see much flexibility in the roster for trades. As I've recently posted on, I'm not a fan of trading 2nd year players. In the comments at Lowetide's site, several posters mentioned the possibility of moving Nilsson for a player and replacing him with Rob Schremp who seems to be turning the corner as a player but has the odds stacked against him for making the team. I don’t think Nilsson has enough cachet around the league to justify his return. Furthermore, I don’t consider the Oilers a contender (yet). Does it make sense to risk trading Doug Weight to get Esa Tikanen or Todd Marchant for Craig MacTavish when we won’t realistically have a shot at the cup next year? Dibs out.

Conclusion: Unless they completely tear it up in training camp leave Peckham, Chorney, Schremp and Brule in the minors. Let the players decide who develops and who becomes expendable. Once you can identify who is Jani Rita or Tony Salmelainen then make your move. There should be tons of cheaper rentals available if this team is in a playoff position. Agree?

Caution: Trading 2nd year players is a risky move

2008-07-10T11:46:00.000-07:00

I'm newer to some of the modern stats on sites like behindthenet.ca but a firm believer in them and that the best way to predict the future is to base it on the past. With that in mind, I am having a hard time predicting how the Oilers with do next season because of the number of (highly skilled) players entering their 2nd NHL season. Without 2 years experience, I don’t think last years numbers are a good indication of next years.

Players entering year 2 of the NHL: Gilbert, Grebeshkov (ok 2.5), Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson (ok 2.5), Brodziak

Lets look at some players (not named Crosby, Malkin or Ovechkin) and how they have done in their 2nd season.

I excluded Getzlaf and Perry's rookie seasons which were half AHL/half NHL. Their numbers are still a good comparison for a guy like Nilsson who is entering year 2.5. Plus it proves my point better ;) I could elaborate on this with more stats later as points alone doesn’t tell the picture. I acknowledge there are counter points to this theory like Svatos, Jordan Staal ect but for the most part, in general I think players improve significantly in year 2. DONT TRADE 2ND YEAR PLAYERS! THE RISK IT TOO HIGH! If I hear much more about trading the players above, I'm gonna snap.

2 random comments:

1) Its worth mentioning that even though Smid is young, he is entering his 3rd year this year and if no progress is made he should likely be traded as he will hopefully be getting past on the depth chart.

2) Tom Gilbert is a guy I'm especially interested in because of the game he plays. If you watch him, he is a lot like a Nick Lidstrom. Comparing the two players obviously is ridiculous but the similarity in the type of game they play worth noting. Gilbert relies heavily on his smarts and stick work rather than his speed and size. One of his best strengths is his ability to anticipate the play. For this reason, I am optimistically hoping that another years experience will result in big improvements again this season. The fact that he is an older player to be in his 2nd year NHL is a good counter point but nothing replaces experience at the pace of an NHL game.

Robert Nilsson - definite outperform potential

2008-07-05T13:25:00.000-07:00

Robert Nilsson is a player I am very excited about next season. Over the past week as the Oilers persued both Hossa then Jagr, I couldnt help but notice that Nilsson became the odd man out and often times mentioned as a guy to go in a salary dump. I realize that the team is much better with Hossa than Nilsson but I'd be very hesitant to trade Nilsson's beauty contract. Signed early this summer for 3 years at a 1.8 cap hit I think he has a very good chance of outperforming his contract. As a player, Rowbert is an elite player in the skill department and a good skater. That wasnt enough to make him a good NHL player but at some point last season something clicked in his head that changed him from a drifter to a player. He isnt quite established yet but I got a hunch he will be soon.

According to behindthenet.ca Nilsson was the second best player on the Oilers 5 on 5. The fact that Nilsson was one of the first RFA signings that KLo made and that MacT spoke positively about him is a good indication that the Oilers think highly of him too.

Over at Lowetide's site, Lowetide has the projected forward lines to be:

Nilsson-Horcoff-Hemsky
Penner-Gagner-Cole
Moreau-Cogliano-Pisani
Pouliot-Brodziak-Stortini

Look where Bobby Nilsson is playing! Definitely a player to watch closely this upcoming season. If he can make similar strides this year as he did last year, Oilers are going to be well positioned up front for the next 3 years.

KLo this offseason

2008-06-06T09:18:00.000-07:00

Last year Kevin Lowe came out publicly and said how the Oilers were going to add 5-7 players and that they had to improve the team. When I first heard this I was excited but also skeptical that we'd be able to get that many players of value. As it turns out, Lowe was left chasing and made some moves that were lateral at best. This year, the team is in a much better position but I also like how his approach much different. KLo seems to be holding his cards closer to his chest. I think thats the way to go. You dont want to have 29 other GMs sitting out there knowing that you have to back up your claims.

Todays quote:

I would like a top-end forward but we're not in a situation where we have to do something to really improve our team. If nothing happens, we'll go to camp with what we have and we'll see what unfolds. I don't feel like I'm under pressure to do something.

He was a lot more descrete about what he is planning on doing. For all we know he has game on the go right now. Frankly I'd be ok if Lowe went out and said "we're going to do what we can to improve the team, maybe add a forward and/or a defender". He doesnt really need to promise anything because it all depends on who is available and what the price is. Considering money doesnt really buy you goals and that it appears to be a sellers market, I think its best to sell off replaceable assets and bank on the development of the kids. The UFAs outside Hossa are average (I think Hossa is going to re-sign for one season in Pittsburgh anyways) and will be overpriced. If you can get a Lecavalier or Gaborik by all means do so, but I think the best option is to build some consistency in the lineup and, assuming we are in playoff contention, add players at the deadline - when the price of talent is cheaper and we have a better idea of who in the playoff run last year was for real and who is Scott Fraser.

Congratulations to Detroit

2008-06-05T07:58:00.001-07:00

Congratulations to the Detroit Red Wings on winning their 11th Stanley Cup last night. They were far and away the best team in the playoffs this season. Pittsburgh prooved to be very resilient which is a good sign for their future. Despite being largely overmatched the series was still entertaining right until the end. I had expected Crosby and Malkin to learn a ton of lessons in a sweep to Detroit. Given that the Penguins had no business winning game 5 I wasnt far off. Crosby seemed to adapt quicker than Malkin who was obviously frustrated with the lack of space. Malkin did however have his best game last night.

Another special congratulations to Nicklas Listrom and Hank Zetterberg. Zetterberg was unreal, he outplayed Crosby in the series and that says alot. Lidstrom was well Lidstrom and would have also been a good Conn Smyth candidate - led by #5, Detroits D was amazing throughout the finals. Finally we can rid ourselves of the notion that a European cant captain a Stanley Cup winning team. That should have happened last year because IMO Anaheim won the series vs Detroit despite getting outplayed (captains would have been Alfredsson and Lidstrom).

Pittsburgh is in very good shape for next season as they still have Malkin and Staal in entry level contracts. Detroit also looks like a team that could repeat. They only have 39 million committed for next season but do have Zetterberg and Franzen to extend. If I were to bet today, I'd bet on a Detroit-Pittsburgh final next year too.

What does the finals say for the Oilers? I've already spent some time comparing Edmonton to Detroit here http://puckdonkey.blogspot.com/2008/05/comparisons-to-detroit.html. I'm not going to compare Edmonton to Pittsburgh because I dont think any team should try to duplicate building the way Pittsburgh did and expect the same calibre picks. 2 things I noticed were that that Pittsburgh got a lot better when Roberts and Sydor were back in the lineup and that having Georges Laraques was invaluable vs Philly but didnt play against Detroit. So based on this years playoffs (and numerous injuries in the last 2 seasons), the Oilers need to get tougher by adding an enforcer - even in the 13-14 forward spot (more on this later). Even Detroit has Aaron Downey. Over the course of a season, players appreciate the protection an enforcer provides. In a 7 game series against a goon squad like Philly, Anaheim or Calgary that protection is even more valuable. Also, if we are in a playoff position around trade deadline, we could also use some veteran depth. Otherwise, overall I like the direction the Oilers are heading - building a team that is skilled and can move the puck.

Regarding Bucky

2008-06-03T11:10:00.000-07:00

This is a spinoff of a HF post I just made. Thought it was worth elaborating on.

Much has been made of the decision of MacT to bring in Bucky as an assistant coach of the Oilers. The most common bashing I've heard has been that "he was a grinder and is going to lock down our skill players" and the other revolving around the general dislike the old boys club. I disagree on both fronts and I'm sick of hearing these arguments over and over.

First and foremost, I think we need to realize what Bucky is being brought in to do. On the coaching depth chart he is behind MacT, Billy Moores and Charlie Huddy. He is being brought in as a complimentary coach. He is a lot more likely to help players with their workout schedules and diets than to run the powerplay. IMO its actually better for the organization to have Bucky as in a apprenticeship role than as a head coach. In this position, he will learn more.

"Bucky was a defensive grinder who cant teach skill"

I dont really think many coaches have a large impact on skill. I think skill is taught by osmosis from other players. I'd argue that Filppula learns a lot more from Zetterberg/Datsyuk by watching them, practicing against them and playing with them then anyone of Detroit's coaches. Same with how Anderson, Kurri and Messier became much better players because of Gretzky. It wasn't because Glen Sather was a mastermind creative coach.

Secondly, defense wins championships. I have no problems with coaches who demand their players be defensively responsible. I also dont think that because your a defensive player it means your team will lack creativity. Guy Carbonneau was one of the most defensive players ever to play the game yet Montreal had the top power play in the league. Defensive players typically have long careers because of their hockey brains rather than their slap shot, skating ability or passing vision. That is why these guys make good coaches. Another good example is Jacques Lemairre.

My only concern is there will be a bias towards grinder type players. Last year, I think the Oilers coaching staff evolved quite a bit with the development of Gagner, Cogliano and Nilsson. Although I think it was a combination of change in coaching philosophy and having better players. I think the vision for the Oilers is to have skilled players who work hard and compete. Crosby, Zetterberg and Datsyuk have all look like grinders at times in the finals and to me it reflects well to the type of team the Oilers are building. I dont think you can win a playoff series with players who dont know how to work hard and compete.

"I'm sick of the old boys club"

I'm less against this argument because I can see the value of new ideas if you can find the right people. But I dont have a problem with MacT/Huddy hiring a guy who they've worked with for 5+ years and know will illustrate the type of characteristics they want in their players. Bucky was one of the hardest working players to ever put on an Oilers jersey. He's not being brought in to teach Sam Gagner to fight tougher players as Bucky often did throughout his career. I've stated what I think his role is several times already and its not to teach players to play like him.

If I'm ever hiring a guy, the first thing I do is ask around the people who I have worked with and know are good and ask them if they are looking for a job. It can take months or a year before you know capable or compatable in the work environment. If MacT wants to hire a guy he knows then I go no qualms - especially in a complimentary role.

Bucky did a lot more (18 years in the NHL, 4 as captain and 2 Stanley Cups) with a lot less than many other guys have. Not a horrible choice for 4th assistant coach IMO.

MacT must be doing something right.

2008-05-18T11:10:00.001-07:00

Is anyone else watching the playoffs this year - watching players like Toby Peterson get significant minutes and feel a little shame? In 2006 I was very hard on MacT for playing Toby Peterson. Yesterday, in game 5 of the eastern finals Dave Tippet is playing him more minutes than MacT ever did. 22 minutes of ice time and on for the final minute of time. Also, I saw 17 playing on the Dallas PP on several occassions. Its fairly apparant to me the MacT was right on this guy. He may not accomplish much offensively be he is bang on positionally and any guy who plays 22 minutes on a team that wins game 5 of an conference final is doing something right.

As for the other suprising performances - Lupul, Sykora and Cleary (Cleary not so much in this years playoffs but moreso last year) we're seeing effective minutes from players who we didnt see effective while in Edmonton. In the case of Lupul/Sykora I still dont miss these them. They are complementary players playing with excellent linemates. On the other hand, I think MacT is making these players better and not seeing the fruits of his labour. I am beginning to get leary of trading Torres, Stoll or Pitkanen because we're gonna end up on the short end of the trades. Anyone else?

Comparisons to Detroit

2008-05-15T10:03:00.000-07:00

I have been thinking a lot these playoffs about what the successful teams are doing and in what areas these teams are outperforming the Oilers. As a team that is no longer a have-not, I don’t see the Oilers building the Penguins route. For me, again and again it comes down to what Detroit is doing. Yesterday, I spent quite a lot of time going through and the pre/post game interviews on the RedWings website and I found some very interesting quotes from Mike Babcock as well as Nik Lidstrom. It really revealed a lot to me and my overall assessment was fairly encouraging about the direction the Oilers are heading.

Reporter: "Is it a luxury as a coach to be able to get your best players out in any situation cause some guys have to, if teams are taking penalties, they can’t get their best forwards in the game. How much of a luxury is that for a coach?"

Babcock: "I guess it’s a luxury but I guess you put them out there in those situations over and over again until they do it right. You don’t let them off the hook and you make them check their best players. We went through the process a couple years ago we'd alternate who match up against the other team’s best, Pavel would match up, Z would match up and then Draper would match up and we'd go night to night. We'd give them the hardest matchup. Because in our opinion we feel that’s just what you have to do. We do the same now with Fillipula and with Franzen. We think your best players gotta play both ways, that’s the philosophy we have and then I guess you get lucky and they can do it. My point being is when your the coach and you gotta hide your best players when you gotta avoid matchups they don’t get on the ice enough, they get frustrated and sometimes your telling them they aren’t good enough to play in those situations. To me that doesn’t lead to winning in the end.

You look at a guy like Steve Yzerman. Did he become a more complete player when he played. Obviously. And when you go through some of the best players in the league, thats what happened. When I came here Pavel Datsyuk was a star, he could still stick handle in a phone both. Now he's just more dominant. All over the ice. He didnt use to penalty kill - now he's a dominant penalty killer. He's a dominant face-off guy. He is great in the first minute of the game and great in the last minute of the game. Up down whatever. He's evolved now I think that’s part of the expectation thats put on him here. Thats part of being a red win.”

Observation: Ales Hemsky needs to start killing penalties. Plain and simple. Oilers can’t affort to have Hemsky sitting 6-8 minutes in a row because of penalty problems. He needs to dominate in more areas of the game like Datsyuk does.

“Zetterberg has always been a great defensive player but he never shot the puck. Now he shoots the puck more anyone in the league (well not a quite as much as Ovechkin) so he scores all the time. And then the other thing that happens is you earn the right to feel confident. No coach gives you that. Your parents don’t. You earn that by having success over and over again. What happens is Fillipula starts trying to do the same things you do and Franzen starts doing it and it’s just kinda contagious.”

Observation: When I first thought about how Zetterberg didn’t shoot when he came into the NHL I again immediately thought about Hemsky and how he actually did start shooting the puck more this year. But after I thought about it, I began to think Horcoff starting to shoot more last year was more along the lines of Zetterberg’s development (always a good defensive player). Last year Horcoff emerged in my mind as a legitimate number #1 center because he started to shoot the puck. Something clicked inside him that made him want to shoot.

Observation: Make Horcoff captain. He is our workhorse leader, with and without the puck on and off this ice but more importantly he is our (second) best player. You want Gagner, Cogliano, Nilsson and Brodziak watching how Horcoff works, how he plays. He is the guy you want players learning from. For all Ethan Morreau does, working his ass off and fighting tougher guys, I’d be ok if I never lived to see Sam Gagner fight Ryan Kesler again.

“When you have a pro like Nik Lidstrom who sets the tone, it doesn’t mean your gonna have success every game or year but it means you just keep knocking on the door and you have a chance."

Observation: He is such a deuschebag but man do I miss Chris Pronger. That statement above is so true. IMO the value of an elite defenseman is higher than that of an elite forward. Calgary doesn’t seem to be contending with a decent lineup and Jarome Iginla but Lidstrom has kept Detroit an elite team between Yzerman/Federov and Datsyuk/Zetterberg. With the loss of Pronger, our last 2 seasons come as no real surprise to me. As for next year, the Oilers D is much improved but is still lacking a top-end player unless Gilbert or Pitkanen have breakout seasons.

“We have 4 lines that can play both offense and defense. That’s just what our team does, everyone on our team plays both ends of the ice.”
-Zetterberg

“Our team defense that we talk about, 5 skaters and the goalie. And just the overall effort from the guys, back-checking, and keeping the other team on the outside, keeping them from finding good shots in the slot.”
- Nik Lidstrom (pregame May 12)

Observation: For all the guys that complain about how Craig MacTavish is a defensive minded coach that discourages offense, it seems here that he is telling players exactly what Zetterberg/Lidstrom talk about above. MacTavish wants a four line game where all lines can player and are defensively responsible. This is what Detroit does – just better.

"They (Zetterberg/Datsyuk) play hard. We you have you best players offensively that are your best defensive players that work harder than anybody else that sends a pretty good message to the rest of group you better do the same. I think they are league elite players, I've been thinking that for 2 years. They've both gotten better offensively. Pavel’s got a lot better defensively. They are complete players with great will. They move the puck well and are competitive … We're fortunate that our best players, not only are they elite players, they are elite competitors."
- Mike Babcock

Observation: Mike Babcock seems to be big on complete level which is something I’ve heard MacT talk about continuously in the last couple years. Its encouraging that Gagner, Cogliano and Gilbert not only have a high level of skill but also a high compete level. The knock on Rob Schremp has been that he can’t skate and that he doesn’t compete hard enough. The lack of compete is not good for him all.

-- Sorry for the any translation errors. My typing is brutal. The Babcock quotes can be found http://redwings.nhl.com/ by clicking on “Wings TV” then find “Mike Babcock presser (May 13)”.